What to do about North Korea?

[Gnug215]

No, this one's on you, because as far as I know, most hostage situations today are dealt with by negotiation.

I understand now. You think that because most hostage situations are resolved through negotiation then the situation in North Korea should also be solved through negotiation.

You must be an optimist.

No. You don't understand now.

Let me try this again:

North Korea should be dealt with no differently than in any other situation where people are being held hostage.

So... negotiation?

You were the one to suggest that North Korea should be dealth with as all other hostage situations - meaning situations, where negotiation is usually the way it's done.

Sure, you probably had something else in mind, but hey, maybe next time you want to make a point about something, you'll express yourself clearly instead of with vague, hyperbolic platitudes.

 

[thenexttodie]

I don't think negotiation is possible here. The state of North Korea certainly does not seem interested to end to horrible oppression of the people unfortunate enough to live there. And they will kill anyone who tries to escape.

It was easy for the world to ignore the suffering of the people being held in North Korea until they started to devolope and threaten the use of nuclear weapons. But now no one has an excuse to politely "turn a blind eye" any longer.

 

[Sparhafoc]

I don't think negotiation is possible here. The state of North Korea certainly does not seem interested to end to horrible oppression of the people unfortunate enough to live there. And they will kill anyone who tries to escape.

It was easy for the world to ignore the suffering of the people being held in North Korea until they started to devolope and threaten the use of nuclear weapons. But now no one has an excuse to politely "turn a blind eye" any longer.

So, Rambo?

 

[Gnug215]

I don't think negotiation is possible here. The state of North Korea certainly does not seem interested to end to horrible oppression of the people unfortunate enough to live there. And they will kill anyone who tries to escape.

It was easy for the world to ignore the suffering of the people being held in North Korea until they started to devolope and threaten the use of nuclear weapons. But now no one has an excuse to politely "turn a blind eye" any longer.

Ok, so we're not negotiating or turning a blind eye anymore.

What then? Staring at them?

So far you've been vague and just stated what won't work. Got any concrete suggestions on what should be done?

 

[thenexttodie]

I don't think negotiation is possible here. The state of North Korea certainly does not seem interested to end to horrible oppression of the people unfortunate enough to live there. And they will kill anyone who tries to escape.

It was easy for the world to ignore the suffering of the people being held in North Korea until they started to devolope and threaten the use of nuclear weapons. But now no one has an excuse to politely "turn a blind eye" any longer.

So, Rambo?

I guess you keep talking about Rambo because you think Americans are stupid and because we have guns we all think we are Rambo. Is that it?

 

[thenexttodie]

So far you've been vague and just stated what won't work. Got any concrete suggestions on what should be done?

Well the thing I know is that war is always wrong. When you think about all of the innocent people who died in World War 2, it would have been better to just let the Nazis do their thing.

 

[Dragan Glas]

Greetings,

So far you've been vague and just stated what won't work. Got any concrete suggestions on what should be done?

Well the thing I know is that war is always wrong. When you think about all of the innocent people who died in World War 2, it would have been better to just let the Nazis do their thing.

Really? :|

Given that "doing their thing" involved genocide of Jews - and that was only the start of their plan for Europe.

Not to mention their alliance with Japan, who were "doing their thing" to Asia, particularly China.

Unless you're simply being contrary - but somehow I doubt that.

Kindest regards,

James

 

[australopithecus]

He’s trolling. Don’t rise to it.

 

[Gnug215]

So far you've been vague and just stated what won't work. Got any concrete suggestions on what should be done?

Well the thing I know is that war is always wrong. When you think about all of the innocent people who died in World War 2, it would have been better to just let the Nazis do their thing.

Ok, so what you're saying is... you've got nothing?

 

[Gnug215]

Greetings,

[...]

Unless you're simply being contrary - but somehow I doubt that.

Kindest regards,

James

He is, though. And he thinks it's somehow edgy and provocative, not just annoying and futile.

When people blindly adhere to an empty ideology, their position is entirely intellectually void. But the mind still needs affirmation and to beat down the cognitive dissonance, so it engages in various exercises to achieve that. One of the most immature methods of doing that is engaging in trolly, provocative, confrontational behavior just in order to get a (counter) reaction.
On some level, he thinks he might be making some points, but on every turn he gets shot down, and the only way out of increased cognitive dissonance (aside from admitting personal failure, which people who have low self-worth, no integrity and too much pride will never do) is doubling down.
And have you noticed how all of his "suggestions" are just black and white grade-school level nonsense that he THINKS is the direct opposite to what us "damn liberals" might suggest?
The world must truly be a simple place for such simpletons.

 

[Sparhafoc]

I don't think negotiation is possible here. The state of North Korea certainly does not seem interested to end to horrible oppression of the people unfortunate enough to live there. And they will kill anyone who tries to escape.

It was easy for the world to ignore the suffering of the people being held in North Korea until they started to devolope and threaten the use of nuclear weapons. But now no one has an excuse to politely "turn a blind eye" any longer.

So, Rambo?

I guess you keep talking about Rambo because you think Americans are stupid and because we have guns we all think we are Rambo. Is that it?

You guessed wrong.

 

[MatthewLee]

I wonder if I may be included in this discussion? I don’t wish to enter if not welcome so if I am wrong here I apologize.
I think that North Korea will eventually end up in a “dog pile on the rabbit scenario” because it has to.
The North Korean people have been subjected to over sixty years of constant, dedicated propaganda against all Western nations. I don’t know that we can trust that if start a war there that the people will lay down even if we devastate their military. Juche is pernicious and they think of us what we think of the Nazis. They don’t have access to well rounded media. It would be like America if all we had to read was FOX news. We’d be afraid of everyone and shooting people in the streets. Combat against them would be like Germany in 1938. Not pretty and a slog to kill until they submitted fully. It’s a human cost nightmare scenario.

On the other hand... we can’t just let it be because he’s a thug who blackmails the world, tortures and starves his people. in the Cold War, and probably now, there was a dead man switch on our nukes. If we get hit by one the computers launch at the one who launched on us without a need for human intervention. I think Bush supposedly took ours down but Russian Federation May still have one. Kim Jong doesn’t have to launch at us he just has to hit Russia by that logic and America might end up in an exchange. This problem can’t be solved by Kirk style phasers first action. It has to be Picard-style outthinking.

We can starve them out as much as we want but only if China and Russian finally realize that the problem has gotten beyond their control. They have a junkyard dog in their yard which has started attacking the neighbors. At some point they will have to acknowledge this. When Saddam was accused of Kim Jong was doing we shot first and asked questions later and the power vacuum gave us ISIS. If we broke down Kim’s regime there is no garuntee the people would not simply start another regime worse than his because their indoctrinated minds couldn’t adapt. De Nazification took many, many years even after the Germans found out what had been done in their names.

The combat scenario ends with millions dead no matter what we do. America is powerful but we can’t stop them from leveling Seoul and possibly Tokyo before we manage to ground his airforce and destroy his missile capabilities. A long and messy ground war between N and S would then ensue with China ensuring no one back doored them. This would be messy no matter what we do. Worse, once all those forces were committed to combat other regional players who were now aware the US forces were committed to combat on a large scale night step up. Russia might start to get aggressive in Europe and the Ukraine and there would be nothing we could do about it because we simply won’t have the force to contain a full scale on two fronts. This is how world wars start.

The only wise policy is to contain and starve him out. It’s the least amount of possible casualties and the least possible chaos. We have to pressure Russia and China to get with the program world wide in a united front or tthe only option is full on, conventional war and as Erasmus once said... “war is delightful to those with no experience of it.” If China and Russia cannot be made to play ball... war is the only option and it is unthinkable because it will open a Pandora’s Ampoule that we can’t shut which may result in the most destructive worldwide conflict humanity could ever even imagine.

Strong diplomacy and patience worked with the Soviet Union. It took time but eventually we just outspent them and in time all regimes such as his fall. He isn’t like Hitler, he’s trapped between two nations which won’t take his garbage. China would lay waste if he turned on them and South Korea is straining at the harness to bite his face off with American AirPower and Japanese AEGIS destroyers tracking every can floating in the water from the Sea of Japan to the South Pacific. And the Japanese have not, in history, been typically seen to be cowards.

We wait, we get unilateral sanctions enacted and eventually hungry people with no heat in winter turn on the monarch. If they simply won’t or if Kim finally does something insane the conclusion is to grisly to even contenmplate. We can’t shoot first unless we are willing to see the world fall apart. We have to do what we’ve done. Strong military presence to discourage aggression, noncapitualion with demands, and patience until unilateral sanctions weaken the nation to a trning point.

 

[Gnug215]

I wonder if I may be included in this discussion? I don’t wish to enter if not welcome so if I am wrong here I apologize.
I think that North Korea will eventually end up in a “dog pile on the rabbit scenario” because it has to.
The North Korean people have been subjected to over sixty years of constant, dedicated propaganda against all Western nations. I don’t know that we can trust that if start a war there that the people will lay down even if we devastate their military. Juche is pernicious and they think of us what we think of the Nazis. They don’t have access to well rounded media. It would be like America if all we had to read was FOX news. We’d be afraid of everyone and shooting people in the streets. Combat against them would be like Germany in 1938. Not pretty and a slog to kill until they submitted fully. It’s a human cost nightmare scenario.

On the other hand... we can’t just let it be because he’s a thug who blackmails the world, tortures and starves his people. in the Cold War, and probably now, there was a dead man switch on our nukes. If we get hit by one the computers launch at the one who launched on us without a need for human intervention. I think Bush supposedly took ours down but Russian Federation May still have one. Kim Jong doesn’t have to launch at us he just has to hit Russia by that logic and America might end up in an exchange. This problem can’t be solved by Kirk style phasers first action. It has to be Picard-style outthinking.

We can starve them out as much as we want but only if China and Russian finally realize that the problem has gotten beyond their control. They have a junkyard dog in their yard which has started attacking the neighbors. At some point they will have to acknowledge this. When Saddam was accused of Kim Jong was doing we shot first and asked questions later and the power vacuum gave us ISIS. If we broke down Kim’s regime there is no garuntee the people would not simply start another regime worse than his because their indoctrinated minds couldn’t adapt. De Nazification took many, many years even after the Germans found out what had been done in their names.

The combat scenario ends with millions dead no matter what we do. America is powerful but we can’t stop them from leveling Seoul and possibly Tokyo before we manage to ground his airforce and destroy his missile capabilities. A long and messy ground war between N and S would then ensue with China ensuring no one back doored them. This would be messy no matter what we do. Worse, once all those forces were committed to combat other regional players who were now aware the US forces were committed to combat on a large scale night step up. Russia might start to get aggressive in Europe and the Ukraine and there would be nothing we could do about it because we simply won’t have the force to contain a full scale on two fronts. This is how world wars start.

The only wise policy is to contain and starve him out. It’s the least amount of possible casualties and the least possible chaos. We have to pressure Russia and China to get with the program world wide in a united front or tthe only option is full on, conventional war and as Erasmus once said... “war is delightful to those with no experience of it.” If China and Russia cannot be made to play ball... war is the only option and it is unthinkable because it will open a Pandora’s Ampoule that we can’t shut which may result in the most destructive worldwide conflict humanity could ever even imagine.

Strong diplomacy and patience worked with the Soviet Union. It took time but eventually we just outspent them and in time all regimes such as his fall. He isn’t like Hitler, he’s trapped between two nations which won’t take his garbage. China would lay waste if he turned on them and South Korea is straining at the harness to bite his face off with American AirPower and Japanese AEGIS destroyers tracking every can floating in the water from the Sea of Japan to the South Pacific. And the Japanese have not, in history, been typically seen to be cowards.

We wait, we get unilateral sanctions enacted and eventually hungry people with no heat in winter turn on the monarch. If they simply won’t or if Kim finally does something insane the conclusion is to grisly to even contenmplate. We can’t shoot first unless we are willing to see the world fall apart. We have to do what we’ve done. Strong military presence to discourage aggression, noncapitualion with demands, and patience until unilateral sanctions weaken the nation to a trning point.

You are more than welcome to join.

In fact... I'm gonna use you as an example for thenextonetodie to live up to, if you don't mind.

See, tnotd?

 

[MatthewLee]

I went back and tried to pull the thread of his (I assume it’s a He please correct me if wrong) the thread of his dialogue and it seems like he favors negotiation. But then the idea of “just letting the Nazis do their thing?” Did I read that right?

Chamberlain is widely regarded as a failure in his dealings with Hitler to the level of traitor in some people’s eyes because Hitler was taking territory and actively engaging in aggression with his neighbors. Chamberlain kept negotiating from weakness and Hitler just kept taking advantage of it. He wasn’t just rattling sabers. He wasn’t just a thug he threatened stability across the entire region and without Americans advancing he might have actually taken Moscow.

We don’t have to negotiate with KJ, we can operate from strength. We have to because he has proven he will use diplomacy to further his goals and exploit his ties with Russia and China to keep doing so.

I may misquote this but I seem to recall a tale of Hitlers “negotiations” with the Chech ambassador and it was Hitler and Ribbentrop alone in the room with him browbeating him for hours with threats of violence. Such people can’t be negotiators with. Strong diplomacy can still work but only in positions of strength.

Hitler only came to power for the same reason KJ did. I recall a general saying at the end of WWI that if they didn’t drive on into Berlin they were just going to have to do it all over again twenty years later. It’s the same with the Korean War. We didn’t finish the job so now we have a monster to contend with who thinks he can use the negotiating table like a candy machine.

We can’t use combat in this theater right now without tragic consequences though. I think that this is unique in that we have to lay diplomatic siege and starve them out. His own people have to do this and we cannot negotiate anymore. No more tit for tat or ok here’s some oil because you agreed to put down the rocket for a minute. Well just be back at Chamberlains dilemma.

War isn’t always wrong, sometimes it’s just less wrong. It’s only wrong when it’s the first option and not the absolute last resort. I believe we honestly have to turn the screws on that nation. In a big way. Way bigger than we have already and any nation that believes in human rights, dignity, and peace must stand with us. China and Russia are perpetuating a massive evil in this by not turning their backs. Russia already has proven in Syria they have questionable judgement however. I hope this can be resolved by other means for the sake of humanity.

 

[MatthewLee]

Quite. The problem with anti-missile devices and nukes is that you don't want nukes to explode anywhere, and while it is unquestionably preferable they explode in the atmosphere rather than amidst a city, the long term damage is unpredictable.

Regardless, it's quite a racket.

I would think that hitting a nuke with an anti-missile ordinance wouldn't make it go nuclear. Those things are very, very complex and if you blow something up near them it's just spread radioactive stuff all over, not make it go boom. But yeah, I'd rather have 20 kg of plutonium rain down on a city than a 100kT (or worse) boom on that same city.

I believe you are correct. The ship I was on for years was a Ticonderoga class cruiser. It had SPY 1B radar. It was an antimissile vessel. We have exceptional radar suites now capable of seeing the battlefield for hundreds of miles in 360 real-time and uplinking with eachother so if one ship sees the missile all ships can shoot it down. These ships have a radar suite designed to be the outcome of Star Wars in the 80s. The missiles they use can get a skin to skin contact with an ICBM in the stratosphere. They did so when I was there and that was in the early 90s. We have had a seriously effective missile shield since then at least. It can take down aircraft like a fly swatter.

I can’t speak to how fully the missile is destroyed but I have to believe it’s enougb to incinerate the bulk of the material, especially for something as rudimentary as KJ’s rockets.

 

[Dustnite]

I know the Ticonderoga class cruisers are armed with the AEGIS missile defense system and that ballistics package can only target an ICBM in launch or approaching apogee.

As far as I'm aware the only thing we have against a missile past apogee in full descent is the THAAD system and those aren't deployed on cruisers as far as I'm aware. Not sure if you can clear that up, MatthewLee.

 

[MatthewLee]

I know the Ticonderoga class cruisers are armed with the AEGIS missile defense system and that ballistics package can only target an ICBM in launch or approaching apogee.

As far as I'm aware the only thing we have against a missile past apogee in full descent is the THAAD system and those aren't deployed on cruisers as far as I'm aware. Not sure if you can clear that up, MatthewLee.

Here are some links to interesting articles I have read on this topic. Remember, the tech I’m talking about is from 30 years ago. There is no telling what we actually have to deploy. We have particle beam weapons to deploy and DARPA is a Willy Wonka treasure trove of frightening tech they have yet to show us. The ship I was on shot down a descending sattelite some years ago. No matter what, a nuclear missile is scary and there is no garuntee that anyone can stop a nuke from being brought into the country. You can make a nuclear bomb the size of a large suitcase that would level New York. The missiles aren’t the scary part. It’s a tinhorn dictator with access to the tech and the materials. KJ has to be stopped without a doubt and regardless of whether we can shoot down a nuke in the sky we can’t shoot down a maniac with a nuke suitcase on a small speedboat just off the coast of Hawaii or Los Angeles.

The seventh fleet would take unbelievable losses from a hit like that.

One deployed nuclear weapon in any theater of any type would require the response of a full tactical response. North Korea would be a smoking glass parking lot with a cloud of radiation heading east that Japan would feel for years. One weapon, no matter how deployed, is an unthinkable scenario for the whole world.

We recently reactivated the B52 fleet as well which means the instant an explosion anywhere was detected.. its the u thinkable nightmare that makes a zombie apocalypse look like a day at the park.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/451891/united-states-navy-north-korea-intercontintal-ballistic-missiles-defense-aegis

https://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/can-we-stop-a-nuke-16988105/


The answer... depressingly... is only a strong maybe. An ICBM without MRVs is a better situation and I don’t know that Kim has access to MRVs but he would stupid to show us his whole hand so I assume the worst. Still dangerous but no matter what... he can make nukes that work and that’s what scary. No scenario with the deployment of a nuke ends well because standard doctrine requires nuclear response to it. Kim knows this so it makes me think he’s just rattling sabers for stronger negotiating power... the unthinkable truth here would be that he is in fact asbosiltely insane, surrounded by yes men who only tell him what he wants to hear... and absolutely unaware of the terrible consequences for history if he twitches.

If someone doesn’t stop selling him the tech and the tools and the materials... North Korea may end up the stuff of legends as they are cleansed from the earth with nuclear fire and the rest of the world plunges into a war without end in which billions die and much of the East Asian territory (and some of Europe’s and North America) becomes uninhabitable.

 

[Sparhafoc]

I do not profess any real knowledge on the subject of rocketry and armaments beyond what I read in the newspapers, but I was under the impression that none of the defense systems has a reasonable chance of success in bringing down an ICBM?

From what I've read, both Patriot and THAAD are way too short range (100km and 200km respectively) to stop a missile flying outside the atmosphere, while AEGIS would require some 'luck' in the sense of having a ship deployed close to the launch site where it could reach the target during its boost phase before it attained maximum altitude.

One weapon, no matter how deployed, is an unthinkable scenario for the whole world.

its the u thinkable nightmare

This is the real story that needs to be made crystal clear to everyone - an uneducated public braying for nuclear grandstanding is how we would describe North Korea, so it's worrying to see we have elements of such people in our own societies. It needs to be said over and over - nuclear weapons are not a solution - they're obliteration, and where that obliteration stops, no one actually knows. We don't protect against the threat of a nuclear attack by provoking a nuclear attack, or by repeatedly threatening a potentially deranged autocrat with nuclear destruction because what then would he have to lose.

We have only one serious option here, and that is diplomacy. We need to find a way to engage North Korea effectively, to make it become a citizen of the modern world. This isn't appeasement; we give not an inch which would strengthen North Korea or lower other nations' influence. Rather we set out clearly what we want to see and what tangible benefits this would result in for North Korea. We've embargoed them to an extreme degree; they're going to squeak sometime - so we need to make it clear there's a door wide open they just have to walk through so that the eventual squeak is not one that generates horror for generations.

 

[MatthewLee]

Patriot and THAAD are two parts of an integrated system. The missiles are only a small part of the information relay system. It’s sattelites, ground based phased array radar systems and sea based systems all sharing data in real-time with pinpoint accuracy. I used to go up to CIC and watch the picture on the three huge flatscreen monitors and watch every single thing for three hundred miles around us in the air or on the ground in the entire Nothern Arabian Gulf and it was frightening how complete the picture was. Operations specialists worked 24/7 just eliminating the useless tracks like debris in the water or tiny fishing boats and we could track thousands of objects even then. It wasn’t just us though. We have aircraft, helicopters, AWACS, and now we have drones and sattelites we didn’t have then...

The US Military is a terrifying juggernaut. Just waiting for an excuse right now to play with their new toys.

I agree entirely that diplomacy is necessary but it is complicated by the state of North Korea’s psyche. They are isolated from the rest of the world, kept in fear and told the reason they are starving is that Imperialists want to kill their children. It’s an immersive environment of TV, film and institutional indoctrination that Hitler would have drooled at. Juche. I often wonder if they will ever give in when all they are told is that only Western Decadence and evil is responsible for their scarcity of commodities. They don’t live in a world of real facts but are fed a steady diet of lies and rhetoric that twist their world view. Did you ever watch the documentary about the doctors who were permitted to do cataracts surgery there as a humanitarian mission? After the people recieved their sight back they bowed and reverently offered tearful thanks to an image of their “fearless leader” in a church like building as if worshipping. It was chilling and nauseating at the same time.

I hope Kim will realize that the suffering of his people is profound and give in but the people have to finally see him for what he is and lead the charge united against him. I don’t know that this is possible. It would be a wonderful, beautiful eventuality if he finally realized that he could bring North Korea into the 21st century and join the global economy as a major producer and active participant but it seems they are lost in a Marxist fantasy from 1949. I hope for this, I pray for it because what else is there? I agree entirely that diplomacy is the only option even worth considering.

 

[Sparhafoc]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42549687

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

Can someone tell this buffoon to shut the fuck up?