North Korea has nukes and has been working on perfecting them and the ability to send them over very long distances via ICBMs. Currently they can't hit the US, but they are working on it.
Considering the situation, what should be done about NK? There are four main routes to take, none of which end well:
1. Ignore it. Let them have nukes + ICBMs. They won't attack us if we don't attack them.
Pros:
- maybe nothing bad happens and we just accept it
Cons:
- can lead to a nuclear arms race in the region (this is no joke as the more countries have it, the more unstable the entire world is, it's bad enough a country like Pakistan has them, NK is 100 times worse)
- they may feel emboldened to extort money from other nations, maybe launch a few (small conventional) rockets into South Korea cause who the hell will want to attack them once they have nukes+ICBMs that can deliver nukes
- can sell nuclear tech to other bad actors like terrorist groups
- if the Kim regime feels threatened by inside rebellion Kim might just decide to say fuck it and push the button or extort America into defending their regime (i.e. help me crush this rebellion or we both die)
- can embolden Kim to make other ridiculous demands
- sucks for NK people
- makes America and the west look weak as fuck
2. Totally destroy North Korea
Pros:
- bye bye Kim
- the rest of the world doesn't have to deal with the bullshit anymore
Cons:
- bye bye South Korea+Japan+US troops stationed in Korea
- bye bye your stock portfolio as you get a financial crisis, global trading is fucked for a while if these two countries get nuked
- sucks for NK people
- China possibly retaliating (personally I don't believe so)
3. Only destroy military targets in North Korea and overthrow Kim
Pros:
- bye bye Kim
- the rest of the world doesn't have to deal with the bullshit anymore
- far less civilians die
Cons:
- intel is limited, we don't actually know where all of Kim's military shit is
- very high risk bye bye Japan+South Korea, a preemptive strike like that would need to destroy every single launch site before Kim has any chance to counter-attack and that's unlikely
- still sucks for NK people
- some have argued it will be like Iraq, personally I don't believe it, it's not the same culture, if NK falls, SK will just annex it and take care of it, I don't think there will be anything like ISIS equivalent of NK
4. Put pressure on the regime with sanctions and get China to pressure them too
Pros:
- no war
Cons:
- never worked and can't be trusted with any deal anyway, Kim still lives in luxury and the suffering is passed on to the people
- sucks for NK people
Either way it's fucked.
Personally I'd try 5. and I don't know how likely it is to happen but:
5. offer Kim and his associates political asylum in luxury in a location of their choice (within reason) and legal immunity from crimes against humanity if they step down peacefully
It would suck to give that to such an undeserving monster, but no other options seem plausible at this point. Kim wants weapons because he doesn't want to end up like Gaddafi. Maybe if he can be guaranteed that another way, he won't want weapons.
Pros:
- worth a try if it can resolve this peacefully
- nothing is lost if the offer is rejected
- WAY cheaper than any other option if successful
Cons:
- very unlikely to be accepted but it seems the best bet to stop this bullshit without a nuclear exchange
Considering the situation, what should be done about NK? There are four main routes to take, none of which end well:
1. Ignore it. Let them have nukes + ICBMs. They won't attack us if we don't attack them.
Pros:
- maybe nothing bad happens and we just accept it
Cons:
- can lead to a nuclear arms race in the region (this is no joke as the more countries have it, the more unstable the entire world is, it's bad enough a country like Pakistan has them, NK is 100 times worse)
- they may feel emboldened to extort money from other nations, maybe launch a few (small conventional) rockets into South Korea cause who the hell will want to attack them once they have nukes+ICBMs that can deliver nukes
- can sell nuclear tech to other bad actors like terrorist groups
- if the Kim regime feels threatened by inside rebellion Kim might just decide to say fuck it and push the button or extort America into defending their regime (i.e. help me crush this rebellion or we both die)
- can embolden Kim to make other ridiculous demands
- sucks for NK people
- makes America and the west look weak as fuck
2. Totally destroy North Korea
Pros:
- bye bye Kim
- the rest of the world doesn't have to deal with the bullshit anymore
Cons:
- bye bye South Korea+Japan+US troops stationed in Korea
- bye bye your stock portfolio as you get a financial crisis, global trading is fucked for a while if these two countries get nuked
- sucks for NK people
- China possibly retaliating (personally I don't believe so)
3. Only destroy military targets in North Korea and overthrow Kim
Pros:
- bye bye Kim
- the rest of the world doesn't have to deal with the bullshit anymore
- far less civilians die
Cons:
- intel is limited, we don't actually know where all of Kim's military shit is
- very high risk bye bye Japan+South Korea, a preemptive strike like that would need to destroy every single launch site before Kim has any chance to counter-attack and that's unlikely
- still sucks for NK people
- some have argued it will be like Iraq, personally I don't believe it, it's not the same culture, if NK falls, SK will just annex it and take care of it, I don't think there will be anything like ISIS equivalent of NK
4. Put pressure on the regime with sanctions and get China to pressure them too
Pros:
- no war
Cons:
- never worked and can't be trusted with any deal anyway, Kim still lives in luxury and the suffering is passed on to the people
- sucks for NK people
Either way it's fucked.
Personally I'd try 5. and I don't know how likely it is to happen but:
5. offer Kim and his associates political asylum in luxury in a location of their choice (within reason) and legal immunity from crimes against humanity if they step down peacefully
It would suck to give that to such an undeserving monster, but no other options seem plausible at this point. Kim wants weapons because he doesn't want to end up like Gaddafi. Maybe if he can be guaranteed that another way, he won't want weapons.
Pros:
- worth a try if it can resolve this peacefully
- nothing is lost if the offer is rejected
- WAY cheaper than any other option if successful
Cons:
- very unlikely to be accepted but it seems the best bet to stop this bullshit without a nuclear exchange