Covid-19 (Coronavirus)

[Deleted member 619]

I know the risk of dying from an airborne virus is very small

Again, if you know this, you'll be able to demonstrate it.

Are you saying this is true of ALL airborne viruses? Is there something specific about a virus being airborne that determines the likelihood of dying from it?

In reality, this is another variable, and predicated on other variables. There's a way to calculate it based on past case-fatality rates, but that only applies to viruses for which we've already had outbreaks. We can't even calculate the CFR for a new virus without first collecting data, because the CFR, and the transmission rate, and a slew of other variables are virus-specific.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

If they're facts, you'll be able to provide substantive evidence in support of them. If you can't, you don't get to claim them as facts. At the moment, what they are is assertions.

Agreed, so let's deal with that. Evidence?

Rather than try to guess what everyone would consider substantive evidence, I would rather do nothing.

 

[Deleted member 42253]

Rather than try to guess what everyone would consider substantive evidence, I would rather do nothing.

I told you the minimum of whats needed according to journalistic standarts. 2 independent sources and you do not even have to find them yourself, its enough to cite any article adhering by the journalistic standart. Thats pretty much universally agreed on, henceforth, its the standart.
Alternativly, one incredibly credible whistleblower, think Snowden. Though he had gigabytes of data to back himself up.

 

[Deleted member 619]

Rather than try to guess what everyone would consider substantive evidence, I would rather do nothing.

You don't have to guess, because you know what it looks like, as everybody here has shown you. Substantive evidence is categorical and unequivocal evidence that what you say is true. If you're not even willing to try, then we've come to the point where I disengage.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

Again, if you know this, you'll be able to demonstrate it.

I have lived more than half of my life and I have not died from an airborne virus.

Are you saying this is true of ALL airborne viruses? Is there something specific about a virus being airborne that determines the likelihood of dying from it?

I dont know everything about every airborne virus. But no, I dont think there is anything special about being airborne that determines my likelihood of dying from it.

In reality, this is another variable, and predicated on other variables. There's a way to calculate it based on past case-fatality rates, but that only applies to viruses for which we've already had outbreaks. We can't even calculate the CFR for a new virus without first collecting data, because the CFR, and the transmission rate, and a slew of other variables are virus-specific.

Well, I think the data shows that most people who catch this virus, wont show any symptoms. And I think that the majority of people who have been tested for corona are people who have symptoms.

It seems that the antibodies for covid19 only last for a couple months. So I unless I am vaccinated, I must worry about the possiblity of contracting it twice a year. But this is not enough for me to require every single person to wear a mask around me. That would be like me expecting everyone not to drive so I dont get hit by a car.

 

[Deleted member 619]

I have lived more than half of my life and I have not died from an airborne virus.

Holy shit. This is probably the most asinine response I've encountered in a long, long time. How many airborne viruses have you had, what were they, and what is their usual CFR?

I dont know everything about every airborne virus. But no, I dont think there is anything special about being airborne that determines my likelihood of dying from it.

Then why did you use the word 'airborne'? If there's nothing particular about airborne viruses, the inclusion of that term is a red herring.

Well, I think the data shows that most people who catch this virus, wont show any symptoms.

What data would those be? Bring 'em on.

And I think that the majority of people who have been tested for corona are people who have symptoms.

What you think about it is of no interest to anybody. We're only interested in what you can demonstrate. You must have gotten that assertion from somewhere, so let's track it together.

It seems that the antibodies for covid19 only last for a couple months. So I unless I am vaccinated, I must worry about the possiblity of contracting it twice a year. But this is not enough for me to require every single person to wear a mask around me. That would be like me expecting everyone not to drive so I dont get hit by a car.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the world doesn't revolve around you. If you're happy to catch it and suffer the consequences, more fool you, but OK. What of those around you who are or might be vulnerable? Are you really that selfish?

 

[Led Zeppelin]

I told you the minimum of whats needed according to journalistic standarts. 2 independent sources and you do not even have to find them yourself, its enough to cite any article adhering by the journalistic standart. Thats pretty much universally agreed on, henceforth, its the standart.
Alternativly, one incredibly credible whistleblower, think Snowden. Though he had gigabytes of data to back himself up.

Give me an example of an independent source. Sadly, I think sometimes when it comes to journalism one must value quantity over quality..I think that almost everything that has been published, affirms that there was a coverup and that China tried to prevent knowledge of the coronavirus. This fits with the prior behavior of Chinese government, because they try to censor information. I have seen no information that shows that they did not try to cover it up.

I think the claim that China did not try to cover up the outbreak is more extraordinary that the claim that it did. You seem to be a smart guy and can decide for yourself what to think.

 

[Deleted member 619]

I have seen no information that shows that they did not try to cover it up.

I've seen no evidence that you do not owe me $10,000. I'll take cash, please.

This bears no relationship to logic.

I should add that 21st's standard of evidence falls far short of mine. Bring me a credible whistleblower, and I'm all ears. I have no interest in the witterings of journalists unless we're talking about very specific journalists who I know to have similar evidential standards to my own. Most news outlets' research consists these days of trawling google and the blogosphere for whatever dreck they think can sell copy.

Worth checking out what potholer54 has posted about the COVID on Youtube. He's a science journalist with about the highest standards of evidence of anybody I've read, and he also has the most robust research ethic, because he's a science writer first and foremost. He also happens to have been Far East correspondent for the Beeb and other UK, US and European news agencies for several decades.

John Pilger. Paul Mason. Find me something by one of them. Others, I'll take on a case by case basis.

 

[Deleted member 619]

Oh, look. A clear, properly researched timeline:



Playing down the severity =/= covering it up, otherwise Drumpf would be the worst offender at covering up, since he played it down for weeks.

 

[Greg the Grouper]

I have lived more than half of my life and I have not died from an airborne virus.

I dont know everything about every airborne virus. But no, I dont think there is anything special about being airborne that determines my likelihood of dying from it.

Well, I think the data shows that most people who catch this virus, wont show any symptoms. And I think that the majority of people who have been tested for corona are people who have symptoms.

It seems that the antibodies for covid19 only last for a couple months. So I unless I am vaccinated, I must worry about the possiblity of contracting it twice a year. But this is not enough for me to require every single person to wear a mask around me. That would be like me expecting everyone not to drive so I dont get hit by a car.

I would like to point out two things, here.

1) The rate at which people die from a virus while having access to medical treatment can be incredibly deceptive; both because it presumes medical treatment, which isn't infinite, the very infrastructure of which could be overwhelmed in a pandemic situation by virtue of just how many patients they suddenly have to deal with, as well as the simple fact that most people don't understand the implications of having, say, 2% of a given population die out over the course of a year. 10% of a given population dying out would likely result in widespread downsizing of industry, and the collapse of infrastructure that can't be downsized at all.

2) It is far more practical to wear a mask than it is to give up driving a vehicle, in essentially 100% of all possible cases. Not to mention, a viral infection and it's negative implications can snowball, as more and more people become infected, whereas the rate of car accidents can do no such thing.

 

[he_who_is_nobody]

I'd argue that wearing a mask is different, because it's of benefit to society, while the wearing of pants stems from a silly taboo foisted on us by the religious and has no utility whatsoever.

You have obviously never spent a winter in New Mexico if you think pants have no utility.

There was never any over-reacting. That was the point I was making. It looks like an over-reaction, because the crisis was sufficiently mitigated to make it look that way, despite how shockingly badly it was handled.

~600,000 people in the US died alone. That is a far cry from "sufficiently mitigated."

If anything, the biggest problem is that people like yourself, confident that their ignorance of everything relevant justified them to make pronouncements they had no business declaring, were in office in key nations like the US, US, Brazil etc. who made out it was all just business as usual, not giving two fucks until it affected them personally.

You said the US twice in there. However, the bigger issue is that in the US, even when it started to affect people personally (remember Don Corona's two nights in the hospital), they still did not give one fuck, let alone two.

1) The rate at which people die from a virus while having access to medical treatment can be incredibly deceptive; both because it presumes medical treatment, which isn't infinite, the very infrastructure of which could be overwhelmed in a pandemic situation by virtue of just how many patients they suddenly have to deal with, as well as the simple fact that most people don't understand the implications of having, say, 2% of a given population die out over the course of a year. 10% of a given population dying out would likely result in widespread downsizing of industry, and the collapse of infrastructure that can't be downsized at all.

Not to mention that dying (at least in the US) might not be the worst thing. Honestly, who here can spend two nights in a hospital (like Don Corona did)? Missing out on possibly two days of pay and paying those medical bills? I know that is something I could not afford.

 

[Nesslig20]

I have lived more than half of my life and I have not died from an airborne virus.

 

[Deleted member 619]

You have obviously never spent a winter in New Mexico if you think pants have no utility.

New Mexico? Dude, I spent a winter in Iowa during the blizzard of '79. lol

~600,000 people in the US died alone. That is a far cry from "sufficiently mitigated."

That's a fair point, though I'd argue that in context it's still a correct statement. It was sufficiently mitigated to make it look like a pointless over-reaction. it certainly wasn't sufficiently mitigated from a competence in public health perspective. it was an absolutely epic clusterfuck.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

Holy shit. This is probably the most asinine response I've encountered in a long, long time. How many airborne viruses have you had, what were they, and what is their usual CFR?

Fuck! I have no idea! Probably I dont know because I wasnt close to dying from any of them!

Then why did you use the word 'airborne'? If there's nothing particular about airborne viruses, the inclusion of that term is a red herring.

Because we were talking about wearing masks!

What data would those be? Bring 'em on.

What you think about it is of no interest to anybody. We're only interested in what you can demonstrate. You must have gotten that assertion from somewhere, so let's track it together.

Right. Ok. I can tell you that in Germany most of people who were tested for corona were people who had symptoms. That was basically the only way to get tested for corona last year. Either to show symptoms of it or to have been exposed to someone who tested positive for it. It took longer here to have other types of lab work done. The protocol here was to first administer an instant PCR test and positive results were then sent to a lab for an antigen test. They seem to get a lot of false positives with the PCR test. They have had to send back entire shipments of PCR tests at my wife's hospital because of false positives, which it is another problem in itself. I dont know how many tests are in each shipment but I am assuming it is a lot, since they have been testing hundreds of staff twice a week for about a year.

It was not as if just anyone could go get tested for any reason. Labs were being reserved for antigen teast and expected to be overwhelmed. The instant tests they sell at grocery stores here now have only been available here for a couple months. I am fairly certain almost no one in Germany last year received an pcr test and an antigen test unless they had symptoms. But all this time staff members were constantly being tested, regardless of whether they had symptoms or not. And the great majority of the staff who tested positive in both tests had had no symptoms and none of them had severe symptoms.

I actually know someone who is quarintine right now here. He was feeling a little sick and many jobs here now have rapid tests to give there employees. He took a pcr test. Tested positive, went home and called the coronavirus hotline and doctors came to his house and gave him an antigen test which he also tested positive. He was barely even sick but he has to stay home for 2 weeks and cant goto work.

So I dont think we need police beating kids up and tear gassing them in Sternchanze. Do you think that we need that?

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the world doesn't revolve around you. If you're happy to catch it and suffer the consequences, more fool you, but OK. What of those around you who are or might be vulnerable? Are you really that selfish?

Do we need police beating up kids and tear gassing them? Because that is what is happening. I dont see any reason why someone should wear a mask to keep me safe from corona and I dont see any reason police should beat up and tear gas kids to in order to keep me safe from corona.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

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Ok. Tell me what evidence you need to prove that I have not died from an airborne illness. I am sure I can come up with something.

 

[Greg the Grouper]

Ok. Tell me what evidence you need to prove that I have not died from an airborne illness. I am sure I can come up with something.

We can concede that you're alive, given that we're having a conversation. The point was that your lived experience can't be extrapolated to larger scale situations.

 

[Deleted member 619]

Fuck! I have no idea! Probably I dont know because I wasnt close to dying from any of them!

You don't see the problem with your anecdote?

Because we were talking about wearing masks!

I see. So what you're saying is that masks are for protection against airborne viruses, is that it? You know that we're only getting the first hints at an airborne strain, right? In fact, masks will offer less protection (though not to a massively significant degree) against airborne strains than the strains we've seen, because the airborne virons are considerably smaller than the globs of sputum that characterise what it takes to get the current strains to travel through the air.

Right. Ok. I can tell you that in Germany most of people who were tested for corona were people who had symptoms. That was basically the only way to get tested for corona last year. Either to show symptoms of it or to have been exposed to someone who tested positive for it. It took longer here to have other types of lab work done. The protocol here was to first administer an instant PCR test and positive results were then sent to a lab for an antigen test. They seem to get a lot of false positives with the PCR test. They have had to send back entire shipments of PCR tests at my wife's hospital because of false positives, which it is another problem in itself. I dont know how many tests are in each shipment but I am assuming it is a lot, since they have been testing hundreds of staff twice a week for about a year.

It was not as if just anyone could go get tested for any reason. Labs were being reserved for antigen teast and expected to be overwhelmed. The instant tests they sell at grocery stores here now have only been available here for a couple months. I am fairly certain almost no one in Germany last year received an pcr test and an antigen test unless they had symptoms. But all this time staff members were constantly being tested, regardless of whether they had symptoms or not. And the great majority of the staff who tested positive in both tests had had no symptoms and none of them had severe symptoms.

I actually know someone who is quarintine right now here. He was feeling a little sick and many jobs here now have rapid tests to give there employees. He took a pcr test. Tested positive, went home and called the coronavirus hotline and doctors came to his house and gave him an antigen test which he also tested positive. He was barely even sick but he has to stay home for 2 weeks and cant goto work.

More assertions. Got anything to back it up?

So I dont think we need police beating kids up and tear gassing them in Sternchanze. Do you think that we need that?

Have I said something that leads you to believe I think that? What the fuck are you blathering about?

Do we need police beating up kids and tear gassing them? Because that is what is happening. I dont see any reason why someone should wear a mask to keep me safe from corona and I dont see any reason police should beat up and tear gas kids to in order to keep me safe from corona.

They shouldn't. More importantly, they shouldn't be put in a position where they feel they have to. I'm no supporter of state tyranny, but when you act selfishly and irresponsibly at a time such as this, I'll frankly side with them over you, because at least they're not endangering their entire communities by their actions, unlike the selfish morons who can only think of their own comfort.

 

[Deleted member 619]

Ok. Tell me what evidence you need to prove that I have not died from an airborne illness. I am sure I can come up with something.

What an absolutely fucking stupid response. Ness was pointing out that your appeal to anecdote is stupid and illogical.

 

[Sparhafoc]

@Sparhafoc The most relevant education would actually be that of a historian specialised in the feudal age, since that is exactly the situation we found ourselfs in.

Very much no.

All an historian could tell us is how many people died in an historic epidemic.

New illness, no effective medication, no vaccine ...

COVID-19 vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

As of April 2021, 16 vaccines are authorized by at least one national regulatory authority for public use: three RNA vaccines (Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna), seven conventional inactivated vaccines (BBIBP-CorV, CoronaVac, Covaxin, WIBP-CorV, CoviVac, Minhai-Kangtai and QazVac), five viral vector vaccines (Sputnik Light, Sputnik V, Oxford–AstraZeneca, Convidecia, and Johnson & Johnson), and two protein subunit vaccines (EpiVacCorona and RBD-Dimer).[3][failed verification] In total, as of March 2021, 308 vaccine candidates are in various stages of development, with 73 in clinical research, including 24 in Phase I trials, 33 in Phase I–II trials, and 16 in Phase III development.[3]

Your remark doesn't correlate to fact.

So the go to should have been to shut down all travel and public life and waiting it out, while quarantining the sick, like we did for Cholera, Small Pox, Measles etc.

But that's not what we did for cholera, small pox, measles etc.

Cholera vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Measles vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Smallpox vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What we did was develop a vaccine. However, no vaccine in history has been produced as quickly as those vaccinating against covid19. At least in that respect, our collective response was stellar.

over and over again till we finally got a medical solution. Hell, we could have completly squashed it, if we reacted a little quicker and a bit stronger.

I think a problem might be in oversimplifying this and talking about ideal worlds. It's hard to talk about our species' response to this pandemic because our species is not politically or socially monolithic - too many rival interest groups, varying competencies and technological disparities meant that our response ranged from fantastic to abominable.

What I think is important here is to take away the lessons learned, because people have been warning about pandemics for years, and particularly from this set of viruses. We need a formalized international response; a way that can evade the political situations of the day and kick into gear instantly. I'm hoping and expecting to see that kind of outcome here.

We will learn, even if it has to be by the hard way.

Btw. some historic knowledge on that topic is also really helpful for putting things in perspective, during the heights of pandemics, especially Cholera, we resorted to burning sick people in their houses to hamper the spread of that deadly disease. And I do not even blame them for that, even with 20/20 hindsight. Meanwhile the black death is a good example for making bad decisions based on fear and lack of information, as in, killing all the cats and making it 10x worse. Nevermind that Measles and Small Pox actually did cut the global population in half .. not hard to imagine how many people that has killed over centuries, nevermind would have killed without an vaccine.

I am not sure why we would compare our modern response to what people did in the absence of the technological, medical, and administrative powers we have today. I believe we should expect somewhat better than a medieval response to disease.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

What an absolutely fucking stupid response. Ness was pointing out that your appeal to anecdote is stupid and illogical.

I think it was fucking stupid of you to ask me to demonstrate that my risk of dying from an airborne illness is small!