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why is he wrong?
- Thread starter Hedley
- Start date
I wouldn't say he is wrong at first glance.
He's debunking the idea that some comet is going to strike the earth or the sun it seems.
Probably just people who like that theory who disliked him, a bit like Nibiru.
I say this because none of the usual bullshit factors seemed to be in there, not because I double checked anything he did.
So... if you google elenin(or look in the related video's there) he's just debunking that a comet will hit us in 2012, aka the whole Nibiru thing.
And there are quite a few people who do want the earth to get hit by an astroid in 2012.
He's debunking the idea that some comet is going to strike the earth or the sun it seems.
Probably just people who like that theory who disliked him, a bit like Nibiru.
I say this because none of the usual bullshit factors seemed to be in there, not because I double checked anything he did.
So... if you google elenin(or look in the related video's there) he's just debunking that a comet will hit us in 2012, aka the whole Nibiru thing.
And there are quite a few people who do want the earth to get hit by an astroid in 2012.
The lock is, is he wrong?
I don't know. To me, what he posted was a series of claim not backed by evidence. Then again, maybe someone who's an expert on this field clear things? I'm a layman; so I can't clear it with basis.
Why I wrote the above:
1. I only saw simulations based on his own opinion.
2. Is he an expert on the topic?
3. How did he come up with the above simulation?
I don't know. To me, what he posted was a series of claim not backed by evidence. Then again, maybe someone who's an expert on this field clear things? I'm a layman; so I can't clear it with basis.
Why I wrote the above:
1. I only saw simulations based on his own opinion.
2. Is he an expert on the topic?
3. How did he come up with the above simulation?
Master_Ghost_Knight
New Member
I can't tell what is going to happen without data, however the objections raised and the points made are correct as far as I am aware.
)O( Hytegia )O(
New Member
If we have any people good with approach data and vectors, here's the actual sauce on C2010:X1 (aka "Elenin"):
[showmore=Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory observations](Original data sauce located at http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/mpec/K10/K10XA1.html )
M.P.E.C. 2010-X101 Issued 2010 Dec. 12, 23:42 UT
The Minor Planet Electronic Circulars contain information on unusual
minor planets and routine data on comets. They are published
on behalf of Commission 20 of the International Astronomical Union by the
Minor Planet Center, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory,
Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Prepared using the Tamkin Foundation Computer Network
MPC@CFA.HARVARD.EDU
URL http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/mpc.html ISSN 1523-6714
COMET C/2010 X1 (ELENIN)
Observations:
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.41707 11 58 06.29 -00 34 20.1 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.43048 11 58 06.68 -00 34 23.2 19.6 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.44468 11 58 07.10 -00 34 26.5 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.45881 11 58 07.51 -00 34 29.7 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99061 11 58 22.59 -00 36 16.1 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99471 11 58 22.70 -00 36 17.2 19.1 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99881 11 58 22.81 -00 36 18.0 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.00291 11 58 22.92 -00 36 18.9 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.09992 11 58 25.57 -00 36 39.0 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.10380 11 58 25.78 -00 36 39.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.11552 11 58 26.06 -00 36 41.7 19.6 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.12719 11 58 26.34 -00 36 43.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13106 11 58 26.43 -00 36 44.5 19.2 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13494 11 58 26.56 -00 36 45.3 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.51792 11 58 37.30 -00 38 00.6 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.53392 11 58 37.74 -00 38 05.0 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98244 11 58 50.33 -00 39 32.9 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98654 11 58 50.44 -00 39 33.8 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.99064 11 58 50.55 -00 39 34.5 19.8 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.17228 11 58 55.38 -00 40 11.5 19.6 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18190 11 58 55.65 -00 40 13.4 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18697 11 58 55.91 -00 40 14.2 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.18992 11 58 56.02 -00 40 13.7 vEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.20147 11 58 56.33 -00 40 16.6 19.8 TvEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.42818 11 59 02.55 -00 41 00.0 19.3 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.44240 11 59 03.00 -00 41 02.5 19.2 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.46720 11 59 03.72 -00 41 08.3 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.47511 11 59 03.95 -00 41 09.9 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.48636 11 59 04.20 -00 41 11.7 19.0 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.49432 11 59 04.43 -00 41 13.6 19.5 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50556 11 59 04.67 -00 41 15.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50987 11 59 04.83 -00 41 16.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.51310 11 59 04.93 -00 41 17.2 19.7 ToEX101H06
Observer details:
114 Engelhardt Observatory, Zelenchukskaya Station. Observers T. Kryachko,
B. Satovski. Measurer T. Kryachko. 0.3-m f/7.7 reflector + CCD.
188 Majdanak. Observer A. Sergeyev. Measurer A. Novichonok. 1.5-m f/8
reflector + CCD.
204 Schiaparelli Observatory. Observer L. Buzzi. 0.60-m f/4.64 reflector
+ CCD.
B90 Malina River Observatory, Povoletto. Observers G. Sostero, E. Guido,
V. Gonano, L. Donato. 0.36-m reflector + CCD.
H01 Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro. Observer W. H. Ryan. 2.4-m f/8.9
reflector + CCD.
H06 RAS Observatory, Mayhill. Observer H. Sato. 0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD.
H10 Tzec Maun Observatory, Mayhill. Observers S. Plaksa, D. Chestnov,
A. Novichonok. 0.18-m f/7.3 refractor + CCD, 0.36-m f/3.8
Maksutov-Newtonian + CCD.
H15 ISON-NM Observatory, Mayhill. Observer L. Elenin. 0.45-m f/2.8
astrograph + CCD.
Orbital elements:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
T 2010 Apr. 1.80995 TT MPC
q 5.1516487 (2000.0) P Q
Peri. 181.19274 -0.77551263 -0.63111764
Node 319.65918 +0.57944608 -0.70118937
e 1.0 Incl. 1.45638 +0.25064398 -0.33169865
From 33 observations 2010 Dec. 10-12.
Ephemeris:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase m1 m2
2010 11 12 11 41 19.2 +01 21 52 5.9420 5.4222 54.2 8.5 19.2
...
2010 11 27 11 50 56.8 +00 15 46 5.7736 5.4582 66.7 9.6 19.2
...
2010 12 05 11 55 23.8 -00 15 15 5.6755 5.4783 73.5 9.9 19.2
...
2010 12 11 11 58 22.8 -00 36 17 5.5992 5.4936 78.8 10.1 19.1
2010 12 12 11 58 50.7 -00 39 36 5.5864 5.4962 79.7 10.2 19.1
2010 12 13 11 59 18.1 -00 42 51 5.5735 5.4988 80.6 10.2 19.1
...
2010 12 19 12 01 50.8 -01 01 06 5.4955 5.5146 86.0 10.3 19.1
...
2010 12 27 12 04 41.7 -01 21 59 5.3912 5.5362 93.3 10.2 19.1
...
2011 01 11 12 08 14.2 -01 49 35 5.2009 5.5780 107.6 9.7 19.0
Gareth V. Williams (C) Copyright 2010 MPC M.P.E.C. 2010-X101[/showmore]
And here's the close-approach data, (and, of course, the same page, but with the orbital reference chart which places it very, very, very close...
Less than 0.3 AU. :|
But, unfortunately, it's going to be that distance on 16OCT11.
... Fuck. >.>
[showmore=Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory observations](Original data sauce located at http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/mpec/K10/K10XA1.html )
M.P.E.C. 2010-X101 Issued 2010 Dec. 12, 23:42 UT
The Minor Planet Electronic Circulars contain information on unusual
minor planets and routine data on comets. They are published
on behalf of Commission 20 of the International Astronomical Union by the
Minor Planet Center, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory,
Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Prepared using the Tamkin Foundation Computer Network
MPC@CFA.HARVARD.EDU
URL http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/mpc.html ISSN 1523-6714
COMET C/2010 X1 (ELENIN)
Observations:
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.41707 11 58 06.29 -00 34 20.1 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.43048 11 58 06.68 -00 34 23.2 19.6 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.44468 11 58 07.10 -00 34 26.5 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.45881 11 58 07.51 -00 34 29.7 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99061 11 58 22.59 -00 36 16.1 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99471 11 58 22.70 -00 36 17.2 19.1 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99881 11 58 22.81 -00 36 18.0 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.00291 11 58 22.92 -00 36 18.9 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.09992 11 58 25.57 -00 36 39.0 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.10380 11 58 25.78 -00 36 39.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.11552 11 58 26.06 -00 36 41.7 19.6 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.12719 11 58 26.34 -00 36 43.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13106 11 58 26.43 -00 36 44.5 19.2 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13494 11 58 26.56 -00 36 45.3 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.51792 11 58 37.30 -00 38 00.6 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.53392 11 58 37.74 -00 38 05.0 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98244 11 58 50.33 -00 39 32.9 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98654 11 58 50.44 -00 39 33.8 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.99064 11 58 50.55 -00 39 34.5 19.8 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.17228 11 58 55.38 -00 40 11.5 19.6 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18190 11 58 55.65 -00 40 13.4 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18697 11 58 55.91 -00 40 14.2 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.18992 11 58 56.02 -00 40 13.7 vEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.20147 11 58 56.33 -00 40 16.6 19.8 TvEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.42818 11 59 02.55 -00 41 00.0 19.3 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.44240 11 59 03.00 -00 41 02.5 19.2 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.46720 11 59 03.72 -00 41 08.3 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.47511 11 59 03.95 -00 41 09.9 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.48636 11 59 04.20 -00 41 11.7 19.0 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.49432 11 59 04.43 -00 41 13.6 19.5 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50556 11 59 04.67 -00 41 15.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50987 11 59 04.83 -00 41 16.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.51310 11 59 04.93 -00 41 17.2 19.7 ToEX101H06
Observer details:
114 Engelhardt Observatory, Zelenchukskaya Station. Observers T. Kryachko,
B. Satovski. Measurer T. Kryachko. 0.3-m f/7.7 reflector + CCD.
188 Majdanak. Observer A. Sergeyev. Measurer A. Novichonok. 1.5-m f/8
reflector + CCD.
204 Schiaparelli Observatory. Observer L. Buzzi. 0.60-m f/4.64 reflector
+ CCD.
B90 Malina River Observatory, Povoletto. Observers G. Sostero, E. Guido,
V. Gonano, L. Donato. 0.36-m reflector + CCD.
H01 Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro. Observer W. H. Ryan. 2.4-m f/8.9
reflector + CCD.
H06 RAS Observatory, Mayhill. Observer H. Sato. 0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD.
H10 Tzec Maun Observatory, Mayhill. Observers S. Plaksa, D. Chestnov,
A. Novichonok. 0.18-m f/7.3 refractor + CCD, 0.36-m f/3.8
Maksutov-Newtonian + CCD.
H15 ISON-NM Observatory, Mayhill. Observer L. Elenin. 0.45-m f/2.8
astrograph + CCD.
Orbital elements:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
T 2010 Apr. 1.80995 TT MPC
q 5.1516487 (2000.0) P Q
Peri. 181.19274 -0.77551263 -0.63111764
Node 319.65918 +0.57944608 -0.70118937
e 1.0 Incl. 1.45638 +0.25064398 -0.33169865
From 33 observations 2010 Dec. 10-12.
Ephemeris:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase m1 m2
2010 11 12 11 41 19.2 +01 21 52 5.9420 5.4222 54.2 8.5 19.2
...
2010 11 27 11 50 56.8 +00 15 46 5.7736 5.4582 66.7 9.6 19.2
...
2010 12 05 11 55 23.8 -00 15 15 5.6755 5.4783 73.5 9.9 19.2
...
2010 12 11 11 58 22.8 -00 36 17 5.5992 5.4936 78.8 10.1 19.1
2010 12 12 11 58 50.7 -00 39 36 5.5864 5.4962 79.7 10.2 19.1
2010 12 13 11 59 18.1 -00 42 51 5.5735 5.4988 80.6 10.2 19.1
...
2010 12 19 12 01 50.8 -01 01 06 5.4955 5.5146 86.0 10.3 19.1
...
2010 12 27 12 04 41.7 -01 21 59 5.3912 5.5362 93.3 10.2 19.1
...
2011 01 11 12 08 14.2 -01 49 35 5.2009 5.5780 107.6 9.7 19.0
Gareth V. Williams (C) Copyright 2010 MPC M.P.E.C. 2010-X101[/showmore]
And here's the close-approach data, (and, of course, the same page, but with the orbital reference chart which places it very, very, very close...
Less than 0.3 AU. :|
But, unfortunately, it's going to be that distance on 16OCT11.
... Fuck. >.>
)O( Hytegia )O( said:If we have any people good with approach data and vectors, here's the actual sauce on C2010:X1 (aka "Elenin"):
[showmore=Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory observations](Original data sauce located at http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/mpec/K10/K10XA1.html )
M.P.E.C. 2010-X101 Issued 2010 Dec. 12, 23:42 UT
The Minor Planet Electronic Circulars contain information on unusual
minor planets and routine data on comets. They are published
on behalf of Commission 20 of the International Astronomical Union by the
Minor Planet Center, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory,
Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Prepared using the Tamkin Foundation Computer Network
MPC@CFA.HARVARD.EDU
URL http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/mpc.html ISSN 1523-6714
COMET C/2010 X1 (ELENIN)
Observations:
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.41707 11 58 06.29 -00 34 20.1 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.43048 11 58 06.68 -00 34 23.2 19.6 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.44468 11 58 07.10 -00 34 26.5 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.45881 11 58 07.51 -00 34 29.7 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99061 11 58 22.59 -00 36 16.1 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99471 11 58 22.70 -00 36 17.2 19.1 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99881 11 58 22.81 -00 36 18.0 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.00291 11 58 22.92 -00 36 18.9 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.09992 11 58 25.57 -00 36 39.0 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.10380 11 58 25.78 -00 36 39.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.11552 11 58 26.06 -00 36 41.7 19.6 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.12719 11 58 26.34 -00 36 43.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13106 11 58 26.43 -00 36 44.5 19.2 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13494 11 58 26.56 -00 36 45.3 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.51792 11 58 37.30 -00 38 00.6 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.53392 11 58 37.74 -00 38 05.0 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98244 11 58 50.33 -00 39 32.9 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98654 11 58 50.44 -00 39 33.8 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.99064 11 58 50.55 -00 39 34.5 19.8 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.17228 11 58 55.38 -00 40 11.5 19.6 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18190 11 58 55.65 -00 40 13.4 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18697 11 58 55.91 -00 40 14.2 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.18992 11 58 56.02 -00 40 13.7 vEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.20147 11 58 56.33 -00 40 16.6 19.8 TvEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.42818 11 59 02.55 -00 41 00.0 19.3 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.44240 11 59 03.00 -00 41 02.5 19.2 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.46720 11 59 03.72 -00 41 08.3 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.47511 11 59 03.95 -00 41 09.9 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.48636 11 59 04.20 -00 41 11.7 19.0 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.49432 11 59 04.43 -00 41 13.6 19.5 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50556 11 59 04.67 -00 41 15.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50987 11 59 04.83 -00 41 16.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.51310 11 59 04.93 -00 41 17.2 19.7 ToEX101H06
Observer details:
114 Engelhardt Observatory, Zelenchukskaya Station. Observers T. Kryachko,
B. Satovski. Measurer T. Kryachko. 0.3-m f/7.7 reflector + CCD.
188 Majdanak. Observer A. Sergeyev. Measurer A. Novichonok. 1.5-m f/8
reflector + CCD.
204 Schiaparelli Observatory. Observer L. Buzzi. 0.60-m f/4.64 reflector
+ CCD.
B90 Malina River Observatory, Povoletto. Observers G. Sostero, E. Guido,
V. Gonano, L. Donato. 0.36-m reflector + CCD.
H01 Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro. Observer W. H. Ryan. 2.4-m f/8.9
reflector + CCD.
H06 RAS Observatory, Mayhill. Observer H. Sato. 0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD.
H10 Tzec Maun Observatory, Mayhill. Observers S. Plaksa, D. Chestnov,
A. Novichonok. 0.18-m f/7.3 refractor + CCD, 0.36-m f/3.8
Maksutov-Newtonian + CCD.
H15 ISON-NM Observatory, Mayhill. Observer L. Elenin. 0.45-m f/2.8
astrograph + CCD.
Orbital elements:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
T 2010 Apr. 1.80995 TT MPC
q 5.1516487 (2000.0) P Q
Peri. 181.19274 -0.77551263 -0.63111764
Node 319.65918 +0.57944608 -0.70118937
e 1.0 Incl. 1.45638 +0.25064398 -0.33169865
From 33 observations 2010 Dec. 10-12.
Ephemeris:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase m1 m2
2010 11 12 11 41 19.2 +01 21 52 5.9420 5.4222 54.2 8.5 19.2
...
2010 11 27 11 50 56.8 +00 15 46 5.7736 5.4582 66.7 9.6 19.2
...
2010 12 05 11 55 23.8 -00 15 15 5.6755 5.4783 73.5 9.9 19.2
...
2010 12 11 11 58 22.8 -00 36 17 5.5992 5.4936 78.8 10.1 19.1
2010 12 12 11 58 50.7 -00 39 36 5.5864 5.4962 79.7 10.2 19.1
2010 12 13 11 59 18.1 -00 42 51 5.5735 5.4988 80.6 10.2 19.1
...
2010 12 19 12 01 50.8 -01 01 06 5.4955 5.5146 86.0 10.3 19.1
...
2010 12 27 12 04 41.7 -01 21 59 5.3912 5.5362 93.3 10.2 19.1
...
2011 01 11 12 08 14.2 -01 49 35 5.2009 5.5780 107.6 9.7 19.0
Gareth V. Williams (C) Copyright 2010 MPC M.P.E.C. 2010-X101[/showmore]
And here's the close-approach data, (and, of course, the same page, but with the orbital reference chart which places it very, very, very close...
Less than 0.3 AU. :|
But, unfortunately, it's going to be that distance on 16OCT11.
... Fuck. >.>
According to that chart, the comet will be 0.232 AU away from the earth Oct 17th, 2011. That's as close as it's going to get before it heads back out into space. It is *ABOVE* our orbital plane and approximately 21, 565, 765.9 miles away from earth on a trajectory away. To place it into perspective, mars at its closest point to earth is approximately 54 million miles away. This comet will approach us at half that distance before skirting away. The gravitational forces acting upon this comet will be way too small to have any effect on anything. It is orbiting the sun, and earth plays almost no role in it's trajectory.
The gravitational keyhole around the earth is 2000 feet wide and on our orbital plane.
PS: .232 AU is not *very very* close. You want very very close, look at the trajectory of Apophis.
April 14th 2029, Apophis will pass by earth at .0142 AU. (1,319,973.6 miles). Moon= 238,857 miles. Six times the distance to the moon.
At its current trajectory, it will not strike the planet. If it enters the gravitational keyhole, it may on its return from around the sun. The odds of it striking this 2000 foot wide gravitational keyhole and being knocked into an orbit that collides with earth are approximately 1 in 45,000.
Yes. It's true. You're more likely to die by meteor then you are to win the lottery.
)O( Hytegia )O(
New Member
Demojen said:)O( Hytegia )O( said:If we have any people good with approach data and vectors, here's the actual sauce on C2010:X1 (aka "Elenin"):
[showmore=Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory observations](Original data sauce located at http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/mpec/K10/K10XA1.html )
M.P.E.C. 2010-X101 Issued 2010 Dec. 12, 23:42 UT
The Minor Planet Electronic Circulars contain information on unusual
minor planets and routine data on comets. They are published
on behalf of Commission 20 of the International Astronomical Union by the
Minor Planet Center, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory,
Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Prepared using the Tamkin Foundation Computer Network
MPC@CFA.HARVARD.EDU
URL http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/mpc.html ISSN 1523-6714
COMET C/2010 X1 (ELENIN)
Observations:
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.41707 11 58 06.29 -00 34 20.1 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.43048 11 58 06.68 -00 34 23.2 19.6 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.44468 11 58 07.10 -00 34 26.5 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.45881 11 58 07.51 -00 34 29.7 19.5 ToEX101H15
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99061 11 58 22.59 -00 36 16.1 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99471 11 58 22.70 -00 36 17.2 19.1 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 10.99881 11 58 22.81 -00 36 18.0 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.00291 11 58 22.92 -00 36 18.9 vEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.09992 11 58 25.57 -00 36 39.0 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.10380 11 58 25.78 -00 36 39.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.11552 11 58 26.06 -00 36 41.7 19.6 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.12719 11 58 26.34 -00 36 43.7 18.9 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13106 11 58 26.43 -00 36 44.5 19.2 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.13494 11 58 26.56 -00 36 45.3 19.1 TuEX101114
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.51792 11 58 37.30 -00 38 00.6 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.53392 11 58 37.74 -00 38 05.0 20.0 TrEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98244 11 58 50.33 -00 39 32.9 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.98654 11 58 50.44 -00 39 33.8 19.7 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 11.99064 11 58 50.55 -00 39 34.5 19.8 TvEX101188
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.17228 11 58 55.38 -00 40 11.5 19.6 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18190 11 58 55.65 -00 40 13.4 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.18697 11 58 55.91 -00 40 14.2 19.5 TrEX101B90
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.18992 11 58 56.02 -00 40 13.7 vEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.20147 11 58 56.33 -00 40 16.6 19.8 TvEX101204
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.42818 11 59 02.55 -00 41 00.0 19.3 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 KC2010 12 12.44240 11 59 03.00 -00 41 02.5 19.2 TvEX101H10
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.46720 11 59 03.72 -00 41 08.3 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.47511 11 59 03.95 -00 41 09.9 19.2 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.48636 11 59 04.20 -00 41 11.7 19.0 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 C2010 12 12.49432 11 59 04.43 -00 41 13.6 19.5 ToEX101H01
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50556 11 59 04.67 -00 41 15.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.50987 11 59 04.83 -00 41 16.7 oEX101H06
CK10X010 |C2010 12 12.51310 11 59 04.93 -00 41 17.2 19.7 ToEX101H06
Observer details:
114 Engelhardt Observatory, Zelenchukskaya Station. Observers T. Kryachko,
B. Satovski. Measurer T. Kryachko. 0.3-m f/7.7 reflector + CCD.
188 Majdanak. Observer A. Sergeyev. Measurer A. Novichonok. 1.5-m f/8
reflector + CCD.
204 Schiaparelli Observatory. Observer L. Buzzi. 0.60-m f/4.64 reflector
+ CCD.
B90 Malina River Observatory, Povoletto. Observers G. Sostero, E. Guido,
V. Gonano, L. Donato. 0.36-m reflector + CCD.
H01 Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro. Observer W. H. Ryan. 2.4-m f/8.9
reflector + CCD.
H06 RAS Observatory, Mayhill. Observer H. Sato. 0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD.
H10 Tzec Maun Observatory, Mayhill. Observers S. Plaksa, D. Chestnov,
A. Novichonok. 0.18-m f/7.3 refractor + CCD, 0.36-m f/3.8
Maksutov-Newtonian + CCD.
H15 ISON-NM Observatory, Mayhill. Observer L. Elenin. 0.45-m f/2.8
astrograph + CCD.
Orbital elements:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
T 2010 Apr. 1.80995 TT MPC
q 5.1516487 (2000.0) P Q
Peri. 181.19274 -0.77551263 -0.63111764
Node 319.65918 +0.57944608 -0.70118937
e 1.0 Incl. 1.45638 +0.25064398 -0.33169865
From 33 observations 2010 Dec. 10-12.
Ephemeris:
C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase m1 m2
2010 11 12 11 41 19.2 +01 21 52 5.9420 5.4222 54.2 8.5 19.2
...
2010 11 27 11 50 56.8 +00 15 46 5.7736 5.4582 66.7 9.6 19.2
...
2010 12 05 11 55 23.8 -00 15 15 5.6755 5.4783 73.5 9.9 19.2
...
2010 12 11 11 58 22.8 -00 36 17 5.5992 5.4936 78.8 10.1 19.1
2010 12 12 11 58 50.7 -00 39 36 5.5864 5.4962 79.7 10.2 19.1
2010 12 13 11 59 18.1 -00 42 51 5.5735 5.4988 80.6 10.2 19.1
...
2010 12 19 12 01 50.8 -01 01 06 5.4955 5.5146 86.0 10.3 19.1
...
2010 12 27 12 04 41.7 -01 21 59 5.3912 5.5362 93.3 10.2 19.1
...
2011 01 11 12 08 14.2 -01 49 35 5.2009 5.5780 107.6 9.7 19.0
Gareth V. Williams (C) Copyright 2010 MPC M.P.E.C. 2010-X101[/showmore]
And here's the close-approach data, (and, of course, the same page, but with the orbital reference chart which places it very, very, very close...
Less than 0.3 AU. :|
But, unfortunately, it's going to be that distance on 16OCT11.
... Fuck. >.>
According to that chart, the comet will be 0.232 AU away from the earth Oct 17th, 2011. That's as close as it's going to get before it heads back out into space. It is *ABOVE* our orbital plane and approximately 21, 565, 765.9 miles away from earth on a trajectory away. To place it into perspective, mars at its closest point to earth is approximately 54 million miles away. This comet will approach us at half that distance before skirting away. The gravitational forces acting upon this comet will be way too small to have any effect on anything. It is orbiting the sun, and earth plays almost no role in it's trajectory.
The gravitational keyhole around the earth is 2000 feet wide and on our orbital plane.
PS: .232 AU is not *very very* close. You want very very close, look at the trajectory of Apophis.
April 14th 2029, Apophis will pass by earth at .0142 AU. (1,319,973.6 miles). Moon= 238,857 miles. Six times the distance to the moon.
At its current trajectory, it will not strike the planet. If it enters the gravitational keyhole, it may on its return from around the sun. The odds of it striking this 2000 foot wide gravitational keyhole and being knocked into an orbit that collides with earth are approximately 1 in 45,000.
Yes. It's true. You're more likely to die by meteor then you are to win the lottery.
Any way that we can blow it to shit and back on it's farewell-trip?
It would seem to be a fair investment.
Wiki:
Also it says:
and
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
which says that the Impact Probability (cumulative) is 7.4e-06
But they give a disclaimer on Impact Probability:
Apophis will pass within 0.09666 AU (14.4 million km,8.9 million mi.) of the Earth in 2013 allowing astronomers to refine the trajectory for future close passes.
Also it says:
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.htmlAs of October 7, 2009, the odds of an April 13, 2036 impact are considered to be 1 in 250,000.
and
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
which says that the Impact Probability (cumulative) is 7.4e-06
But they give a disclaimer on Impact Probability:
Impact Probability
The probability that the tabulated impact will occur. The probability computation is complex and depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify. For these reasons the stated probability can easily be inaccurate by a factor of a few, and occasionally by a factor of ten or more.
)O( Hytegia )O(
New Member
Shaedys said:Impact Probability
The probability that the tabulated impact will occur. The probability computation is complex and depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify. For these reasons the stated probability can easily be inaccurate by a factor of a few, and occasionally by a factor of ten or more.
#NotIntendedToBeAFactualStatement
>.>
Who's going to sue them if we DO get hit?
Master_Ghost_Knight
New Member
Jesus?)O( Hytegia )O( said:#NotIntendedToBeAFactualStatement
>.>
Who's going to sue them if we DO get hit?
)O( Hytegia )O(
New Member
Master_Ghost_Knight said:Jesus?)O( Hytegia )O( said:#NotIntendedToBeAFactualStatement
>.>
Who's going to sue them if we DO get hit?
Exactly.
It seems to be a silly idea to have a disclaimer there.
In case of the End of Everything as we know it:
Do not Sue.
People commenting on the video suggesting that Elenin is located at 9 48 48.08 +13 19 19.61 are full of shit.
The google earth sky picture at that coordinate is *typical* electromagnetic interference with IRAS. Just to make sure, I went to the SDSS website(the company that took the picture) and I checked those coordinates with their more detailed photos with IRAS turned off.
http://skyserver.sdss3.org/dr8/en/tools/chart/chart.asp?ra=147.20004955&dec=13.32371637
Zoom in to see that there is in fact an object in that space (though dull). The electromagnetic interference coupled with the dull glow would suggest the object is probably a dwarf.
The dispersal pattern of blue shift suggests a massive explosive force.
The google earth sky picture at that coordinate is *typical* electromagnetic interference with IRAS. Just to make sure, I went to the SDSS website(the company that took the picture) and I checked those coordinates with their more detailed photos with IRAS turned off.
http://skyserver.sdss3.org/dr8/en/tools/chart/chart.asp?ra=147.20004955&dec=13.32371637
Zoom in to see that there is in fact an object in that space (though dull). The electromagnetic interference coupled with the dull glow would suggest the object is probably a dwarf.
The dispersal pattern of blue shift suggests a massive explosive force.