What should we do to promote job creation?

[Ozymandyus]

A lack of jobs is something that I believe will be a growing problem in the coming century. There is a lot of room for temporary growth in the less industrialized nations, as we start to provide the sort of wealth that we all have been able to take advantage of to them. We see this going on in China and India now... But once their growth stabilizes we will undoubtedly see some of the same problems we have in the U.S.

There seems to me to be a clear cycle of industrialization -> rise in wealth -> creation of service industry jobs -> mechanization and export of industrial jobs -> mechanization of service industry jobs (ATMs, automated checkout, automated help systems) -> ... ???

Obviously there will be people that service the machines, but as we get better we will need less and less of these. What is this next step? What should the masses be doing for work? Should we fight against automation or allow that it gives us more free time and be more creative, perhaps pay the people that would have those jobs the difference in money saved by using machines? Is there a new kind of job that hasn't been tapped well yet, perhaps making everyone into scientists and researchers (along with other somewhat unmechanizable jobs like entertainers and creative arts)? That would be my ideal.

Right now all the profits of mechanization go to the people who own the companies at the expense of the people who partially helped build the companies. This cannot continue forever, and will eventually collapse the system into revolution.

Are there only two answers: Luddites or Marxists? Kurt Vonnegut's first novel Player Piano touches on these themes.. he actually chooses Luddites.

 

[GoodKat]

Perhaps population control?

 

[Ozymandyus]

Perhaps population control?

Certainly one way to solve the problem... I'm not really a fan but it would definitely solve it.

I believe we should look to the real sustainable carrying capacity of the earth (which will increase with technology) to determine population limits. I do not believe we have reached this limit yet, though we are exceeding it in terms of the sustainablity, we have the ability by implementing current technology to make it sustainable.

I certainly don't think whether or not people will have jobs should determine whether we should let them be born or not.

One solution seems to be this 'dig holes and fill them back in' mindset. I prefer to think that we have the resources and needs that can be filled by properly assigned labor and we are not properly doing it yet.

Teachers, and technologists of various sorts are needed now. More scientists is something we could clearly use. For some reason all these jobs do not pay all that well and are somewhat difficult to break into. Not sure if we need to pass laws or what exactly.

 

[ImprobableJoe]

The current problem seems to be "predatory capitalism" that has been all the rage and has led to the current financial problems. Deregulated markets and the divorce of executive pay from the health of the company have led to rampant unemployment, which means lower demand for goods, which means even more unemployment.

What we need to do is clamp down on executive pay, tie it to the health of the company instead of quarterly profitability, and take a long-term view of economic health as a national security issue that affects everyone, not a giant casino for the mega-wealthy to gamble on and dump all the risk on the rest of us.

 

[richi1173]

The most effective and long term way of creating jobs is to promote science and applying the new gained knowledge in technological developments.

Fifteen years ago the internet as we know it did not exist. How many million of people are now employed into web related jobs across the world? Science applied into technological developments is the only answer.

Automation is good for some things, but not good for others. For example, construction is a horrible job for a robot because it requires high flexibility of mind and body, something which robots do not have. On the other hand, if you want to give them artificial intelligence and have a robot revolt, be my guess.

 

[Ozymandyus]

Well, even construction jobs are getting automated. Pre-fabricated housing and such are becoming more and more the standard.. and there is a push for pre-fab high rise buildings. I believe that all this will become automated eventually as well, and certainly in that we have better machines for helping build these things we already have automation. Thanks to cranes and bulldozers and such it only takes a fraction of the time to build anything.

I definitely agree with the technological innovation will be an ever expanding field. This should be the biggest investment and where we put so much of our unused labor. The problem is it takes a whole lot of education to be able to work with such complex and rapidly changing fields, and we still don't pay educators much at all. Though certainly some of education can be more automated and systematic as well, as we see a lot of courses moving online and such. Innovators in the teaching field are desperately needed imo.

 

[richi1173]

We tried pre-fab housing, entire houses from the factory, in the 1950's and it was a complete disaster. Nobody bought them because, as Henry Ford said: "You can have the Model-T in any color, as long as its black." Its just monotonous and unappealing to consumers.

Plus, the pre-fab housing that is done in the factory is mostly done by manual labor. What robot can install a toilet?

There is still the site work that needs to be done even for pre-fab. For example, the foundation, patio, driveway, pool ect.

Modular homes though, I think are the way of the future.

I agree that our education system, at least for the US, needs some serious overhauling and its best that we hurry.

 

[Ozymandyus]

Sorry, I suppose I used the wrong terms. I meant to use the term manufactured housing I guess. Housing where some of the parts come pre-assembled and the design plan is slightly variable, but within certain limits. In any case, there is a clear pattern of increasing use of mass-production even for things like this. I agree that there will always be some human installation work necessary though, no doubt about that.

Also... stuff like this: http://www.dynamicarchitecture.net/home.html

 

[Tsunamie]

world war 3

if nuke's are involved, we would create a lot of jobs

 

[desertedcities]

Luddites, heh. I thought that could happen, but in today's society I find the people who want to work work in service industries and want to work as little as possible for the highest pay (which is basically what Union workers do, but I don't want to really go into why Unions are no longer needed).

So yeah, Luddites may not necessarily happen these days if we can transfer the quasi-capitalism (people I know have a hard time believing me that the US and the world aren't pure capitalist) into at least an ersatz-socialism/communism (as Ozymandyus knows I mentioned). If that happened (and greed was almost eliminated) the idea that a capitalist nation that has largely transferred to a automated and mechanized system could then morph into a purely socialist/communist nation.

This also doesn't mean that service industries would be eliminated, there would still need to be a rather large workforce for that. Basically the workforce bulk would transfer from manufacturing to the service industries. Meaning people would still work. Also I'm not going into the population control idea (mainly because I feel that it may work at a certain point). Either way, the society would have a gigantic service industry worker base, and a minuscule industrial manufacturing base.

I noticed too that you guys were talking about pre-fabricated or manufactured homes. There's a lot of places that do it (Timberland is the one where I live, they have some nice houses), and they're mostly built by manual labor (which isn't bad at all). Also, I saw a mention of a robot that would be unable to install a toilet. Honestly, I think that it would be easy to build a mechanized system to install a toilet, but it would be mostly redundant considering houses (especially the prefab custom ones) are all so different. It would still be economical to have a normal worker do it.

Also, manufactured homes still allow for customization (as I mentioned), which makes them more appealing to the consumer base. The whole point of buying a manufactured home was to reduce the home building cost and time. The idea was to have the house being built the same time the foundations and site infrastructure is being built so that they can just crane in the house and hook it up and the people can move in months earlier. It's a great concept, one I'm debating on myself (except, my 'dream' house really couldn't be prefabricated). I think it would do a lot of good.

What I don't like, though, is the houses that are built ten feet apart in lots that barely hold them. Those are ten times worse than manufactured homes. Even then, they're still technically manufactured homes. I think this is what happens in company towns, housing projects like this. It's stupid and I want to see city planners do away with the allowances they give to these home manufacturers.

Anyways, I don't know about job creation in all this. One of my arguments was the decriminalization of Cannabis Sativa and the legalization of farming of it. It could create a large job market in time, but not immediately. My other argument is crumbling infrastructure. It's doing just that, and we can't just throw money at it, we have to create plans that would create jobs to tackle certain parts of the infrastructure. From the roads to the sewers, to the bridges, levees, and (I can't seem to recall the other one I was thinking of...). These things could create a massive amount of construction jobs that would allow for getting shit done on things it should have been done on long ago.

The other one I suggested was a temporary ersatz-communism. Where all the businesses who suck at being a business now were taken over by the government and completely reformed, though this one would essentially be impossible.

Yeah... I'm done for now...

 

[Ozymandyus]

If that happened (and greed was almost eliminated) the idea that a capitalist nation that has largely transferred to a automated and mechanized system could then morph into a purely socialist/communist nation.

I'm looking forward to more of a technocracy. Let science look at the facts and decide the direction of society and technology and assigning labor/resources (i'm not saying telling people what to do, but more of a setting of priorities which we can use a monetary incentivized system or something to that effect to persuade the population). Communism relies heavily on the Marxist idea of the End of History(a kind of end of societal progression), which I think was a vastly overstated goal. If we assume that we have achieved some universal objective we will shut out new innovative ideas, which is dangerous. Our technology will continue to adapt and progress, and our ideals and place in the world will have to continue progressing with it.

This also doesn't mean that service industries would be eliminated, there would still need to be a rather large workforce for that. Basically the workforce bulk would transfer from manufacturing to the service industries. Meaning people would still work. Either way, the society would have a gigantic service industry worker base, and a minuscule industrial manufacturing base.

Ah but this is getting automated too. Computerized phone services, automated teller machines, automated checkout... undoubtedly we will eventually be ordering fast food by touch screen, getting products delivered to our houses by a more mechanized delivery chain etc etc. instead of going to stores... Ordering online rather than by phone. etc.

I noticed too that you guys were talking about pre-fabricated or manufactured homes. There's a lot of places that do it (Timberland is the one where I live, they have some nice houses), and they're mostly built by manual labor (which isn't bad at all). Also, I saw a mention of a robot that would be unable to install a toilet. Honestly, I think that it would be easy to build a mechanized system to install a toilet, but it would be mostly redundant considering houses (especially the prefab custom ones) are all so different. It would still be economical to have a normal worker do it.

This stuff Can be mechanized pretty effectively though and perhaps eventually will be. Certainly adapting automated assembly methods to different floor plans is possible. You will certainly always need some on-site workers probably, for final assembly. Perhaps even toilets will be installed in factory, having some of the plumbing pre-assembled according to the floor plan chosen is certainly not out of range of mass production.

One of my arguments was the decriminalization of Cannabis Sativa and the legalization of farming of it. It could create a large job market in time, but not immediately.

I actually disagree with this, though I agree with legalization. I think ultimately decriminalization will actually lead to production line Marijuana farms like we see with the other major cash crops. Especially since marijuana is relatively easy to farm... this will actually probably lead to a Loss of jobs, at least thats what I would predict.

 

[desertedcities]

I'm looking forward to more of a technocracy. Let science look at the facts and decide the direction of society and technology and assigning labor/resources (i'm not saying telling people what to do, but more of a setting of priorities which we can use a monetary incentivized system or something to that effect to persuade the population). Communism relies heavily on the Marxist idea of the End of History(a kind of end of societal progression), which I think was a vastly overstated goal. If we assume that we have achieved some universal objective we will shut out new innovative ideas, which is dangerous. Our technology will continue to adapt and progress, and our ideals and place in the world will have to continue progressing with it.

On the technocracy, I'm awaiting one as well, where there is nothing to hold back the advance of useful technology but a heavy dose of common sense. I'd actually like to see a united world under a technological umbrella, but that's just a Star Trek dream, in truth. Too much stupid in this world.

Ah but this is getting automated too. Computerized phone services, automated teller machines, automated checkout... undoubtedly we will eventually be ordering fast food by touch screen, getting products delivered to our houses by a more mechanized delivery chain etc etc. instead of going to stores... Ordering online rather than by phone. etc.

Yes, you are correct. There's a business in the east of the US that 'outsources' the drive-thru ordering system to a center where here is a host of cubicled people taking the orders instead of someone in the fast food joint. I think this idea is a bit Jetsony. Though I still think there's room for people in these arenas. Maybe not as many, but still a larger host than the manufacturing sector. But yeah, computerized phone service is a way for businesses not having to deal with the consumer in my opinion (banks as I usually have to deal with them this way). It's like the chain of people in businesses and governments that keep the little guy from talking to the big guy. Yeah... I can't think of anything else on this at the moment, too distracted by class.

This stuff Can be mechanized pretty effectively though and perhaps eventually will be. Certainly adapting automated assembly methods to different floor plans is possible. You will certainly always need some on-site workers probably, for final assembly. Perhaps even toilets will be installed in factory, having some of the plumbing pre-assembled according to the floor plan chosen is certainly not out of range of mass production.

You're right about this too, but I think there's still going to be people out there that want to do this kind of work. I know I like to build houses and such, so I think there will be a bit of resistance to mechanization of all the building of the house. I think there will be more human-run systems that make the manufacturing time twice as fast as it is now. I think that's the way it'll go. Like the car manufacturing process. I just don't think complete automated mechanization is the way to go for everything. Mainly because I'm a bit afraid of thinking machines as a collective. As it says in the Orange Catholic Bible of the Dune Imperium, "Thou shalt not make a computer in the likeness of a human mind."

I actually disagree with this, though I agree with legalization. I think ultimately decriminalization will actually lead to production line Marijuana farms like we see with the other major cash crops. Especially since marijuana is relatively easy to farm... this will actually probably lead to a Loss of jobs, at least thats what I would predict.

That was one of my friend's arguments. I think it won't happen immediately, though. I think it'll take awhile for the farming systems to adapt to mechanized farming of the crop. Either way, it'll have a large worker base in the beginning, then as the years and the mass-farming equipment advance, the worker base will shrink. This is why I still advocate the infrastructure as the first, and the fastest, and in my opinion the best way to create instant jobs.