Following my "What if...?" series, here's my second one:
What if a global financial meltdown, a third or fourth crysis (however you measure it) is just around the corner? (Eg. "Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit" or "Dark Knight Rises", where they also hinted at it)
Barring the implausable scenarios in the two movies, there is a very real possibility of this happening. Now as you may know, I studied "Geography and Economics" as a school subject. I obviously didn't learn as much as real economists learn, but I believe I've got a fair grasp of the subject. My Professor was very left leaning, so I probably got a distorted picture from him (as I would have had with a very righ leaning one), but again I believe I'm sufficiently unbiased to make up my mind on my own.
If you look at the last two crashes, (IT and housing bubble) you can see similarities between the two and what is happening now. In both cases, prices swelled very quickly and there wasn't anything to warrant that rise. Today, stock markets are higher than ever and lots and lots of money is being pumped into banks and other institutions, so they're probably feeling quite smug.
If said bubble bursts, we'll probably have a couple of things happening at the same time. I'm painting a worst-case scenario here, but I don't think it's extremely unlikely. I'll out them in order:
First, a lot of people will lose a lot of money, but a lot of people will also gain a lot of money. There are certain ways you can bet on other people losing money or countries going bankrupt, which is why the EU was so important in bailing out Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. If not for the EU, probably all of those five countries would have lost a huge amount of money.
Second, collapse. Entire regions will lose absolutely everything. We haven't yet mastered the last crysis, so a new one will send shockwaves throughout the world. Millions of people will lose their jobs, new investment will be minimal and poverty will be at an all-time high. We might see a new Great Depression exactly the same way we had it in the 1930s.
Third, unrest. As unemployment reaches 20-30% in Western Europe, people will turn away from moderate political parties and turn more and more to very nationalist parties such as the Front National in France, the Vlaams Alliance in Belgium, the NPD in Germany, Golden Dawn in Greece and the BNP in the UK. All of these parties will, I would wager, see increases of 10-20% of the total. (The BNP is at 1.8% today, so nearly 12%)
Fourth, breakdown of international relations. As nationalist parties take over, the EU will lose importance and probably also members. Nationalist parties will turn down asylum seekers and evict those already in the countries. This can only lead to worse international communication and strong resentment toward these countries.
Fifth, inter-national conflict. As unemployment soars, many less economically developed countries (LEDCs) will fall to extremist parties. There will be competition and they will battle it out amongst themselves. Refugees will swamp the continents and people will try to flee even more fervently from such areas. Marine patrols in for example the Mediterranean will become more frequent as now we're really fighting not to be overrun.
Sixth, nation-overlapping war. As extremist groups take hold of a country, other countries surrouding the first will be caught up in the war. Since Nationalist governments in Europe have no intention of going to fight for another country, this may soon turn into large-scale war in a continent. Imagine just one scenario: As the US pulls out everything, IS overruns Irak and, fuelled by the Syrian conflict, intervenes in Syria on the side of extremist muslims. Iran is now caught between Afghanistan and Iraq (once more), but this time civil unrest takes over. Extremists get their hands on nuclear weaponry. Israel is now ripe for the picking.
Seventh...? World war 3?
What if a global financial meltdown, a third or fourth crysis (however you measure it) is just around the corner? (Eg. "Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit" or "Dark Knight Rises", where they also hinted at it)
Barring the implausable scenarios in the two movies, there is a very real possibility of this happening. Now as you may know, I studied "Geography and Economics" as a school subject. I obviously didn't learn as much as real economists learn, but I believe I've got a fair grasp of the subject. My Professor was very left leaning, so I probably got a distorted picture from him (as I would have had with a very righ leaning one), but again I believe I'm sufficiently unbiased to make up my mind on my own.
If you look at the last two crashes, (IT and housing bubble) you can see similarities between the two and what is happening now. In both cases, prices swelled very quickly and there wasn't anything to warrant that rise. Today, stock markets are higher than ever and lots and lots of money is being pumped into banks and other institutions, so they're probably feeling quite smug.
If said bubble bursts, we'll probably have a couple of things happening at the same time. I'm painting a worst-case scenario here, but I don't think it's extremely unlikely. I'll out them in order:
First, a lot of people will lose a lot of money, but a lot of people will also gain a lot of money. There are certain ways you can bet on other people losing money or countries going bankrupt, which is why the EU was so important in bailing out Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. If not for the EU, probably all of those five countries would have lost a huge amount of money.
Second, collapse. Entire regions will lose absolutely everything. We haven't yet mastered the last crysis, so a new one will send shockwaves throughout the world. Millions of people will lose their jobs, new investment will be minimal and poverty will be at an all-time high. We might see a new Great Depression exactly the same way we had it in the 1930s.
Third, unrest. As unemployment reaches 20-30% in Western Europe, people will turn away from moderate political parties and turn more and more to very nationalist parties such as the Front National in France, the Vlaams Alliance in Belgium, the NPD in Germany, Golden Dawn in Greece and the BNP in the UK. All of these parties will, I would wager, see increases of 10-20% of the total. (The BNP is at 1.8% today, so nearly 12%)
Fourth, breakdown of international relations. As nationalist parties take over, the EU will lose importance and probably also members. Nationalist parties will turn down asylum seekers and evict those already in the countries. This can only lead to worse international communication and strong resentment toward these countries.
Fifth, inter-national conflict. As unemployment soars, many less economically developed countries (LEDCs) will fall to extremist parties. There will be competition and they will battle it out amongst themselves. Refugees will swamp the continents and people will try to flee even more fervently from such areas. Marine patrols in for example the Mediterranean will become more frequent as now we're really fighting not to be overrun.
Sixth, nation-overlapping war. As extremist groups take hold of a country, other countries surrouding the first will be caught up in the war. Since Nationalist governments in Europe have no intention of going to fight for another country, this may soon turn into large-scale war in a continent. Imagine just one scenario: As the US pulls out everything, IS overruns Irak and, fuelled by the Syrian conflict, intervenes in Syria on the side of extremist muslims. Iran is now caught between Afghanistan and Iraq (once more), but this time civil unrest takes over. Extremists get their hands on nuclear weaponry. Israel is now ripe for the picking.
Seventh...? World war 3?