You could invoke a cosmic hippo that shat it (the universe) out, LEROY, and you'd have exactly the same degree of accuracy if you calculated the chance of that.

So what you are saying is that, even though you don't have the 'exact' numbers when it comes to determining whether a hippo shat out this universe, we can still just calculate probabilities on the back of a beermat.

In your case, that calculation would read: 1 because I prefer 1

That's the sum of your calculation.

But go on, calculate your way out of hippo shit. I bet you won't touch it with a barge-pole because any answer you gave would immediately debunk your own claim.