Boston bombings

[Nemesiah]

Article

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/u...e-of-boston-marathon.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

What are your thoughts on this event? What posibble concecuences do you think it could have? Who do you think is responsabe?

Ed.

 

[Visaki]

Hard to say so soon with little information. Although the media is talking about "two powerfull bombs" what I can say with my limited knowledge about explosives (I was in the military as a combat engineer so I've blown some things up) though is that the devices were not that large (I read "only" 3 confirmed dead, though that will rise) so they were probably plants and not suicide bombings. Pretty much large pipebombs instead of backpack full of boom.

Who is the big question I suppose. The relatively small bombs point away from true international terrorism like Al Qaida I think, they like to think bigger (though that strategy might have chanced if it has become too hard to implement). Personally I think it's a home grown group, what seems like a lack of a hard target (instead just killing the crowd) is a clue against anti-goverment groups, islamic fanatics are always a possibility these days and one can't rule out a lone crackpot (think Mad Bomber of New York) though two bombs point towards more than one person I think.

But that's just pretty much guesses. Hard facts will surface and we will know more. What I think we can say is that this'll be used to drive in some more legistation like the Patriot Act.

 

[australopithecus]

I don't have anywhere near enough info to predict the consequences, or the perpetrator. So I won't.

 

[Engelbert]

horrific. I hope they catch whoever did this quickly.

 

[)O( Hytegia )O(]

Most likely domestic terrorists - if they were an international group it wouldn't have taken so long for us to have heard of a major public release.

They used Pressure Cookers... It's a devilishly simple concept that amplifies an explosive by the simple fact that massive pressure buildup in a small, compact space releases violently. But, honestly, the lucky part was that the guy couldn't manage to get his hands on real explosives (or brew an effective HME). When it comes to these babies, there's basically no way to direct the shrapnel/explosion itself and much of the energy is wasted trying to break through the steel plate linings of the cooker itself.

If it had been actual ordinance or explosives then the casualties would have been in the magnitudes of 20-30 more dead and many more than that wounded or receiving amputations.

 

[theyounghistorian77]

I don't have anywhere near enough info to predict the consequences, or the perpetrator. So I won't.

+1

And remembering full well the coverage in the media in the immediate aftermath of the Terrorist attack in Norway, such as this sun headline:

Of course as it turned out the responsibility for the atrocities in Oslo and the shooting of the Children on that island was not some Islamic fanatic but instead a Far Right extremist who believed "Marxism = Multiculturalism = Islamic takeover of Norway". Bottom line. I want all the facts in first so that i can apportion the relevant blame that is needed!

 

[Inferno]

Apparently the two guys were Chechen. One's dead, the other on the run with the police right on his tail.

Crazed individuals? I don't know.
Religiously motivated? Apparently this was a "God mandated it" sorta thing. Sean Faircloth said the following:

The dead Boston Marathon killer apparently said god is against alcohol. Apparently the killer also "knew" that God is ok with mass murder. If someone tells you they know what God thinks, keep your eyes wide open. Let's do all we can to help the victims and their families. -- Sean Faircloth, Dir. of Strategy & Policy

Is that true? The NY-times seems to think so:

NY Times[/url]"]
The other, an all-star high school wrestler, listed “Islam” as his worldview on his Facebook page and was described by a neighbor as a “very photogenic kid” who had “a heart of gold.”

In the essay, Tamarlan Tsarnaev is quoted as saying he had become devoutly religious, having abandoned smoking and drinking. He sounds alienated from Russia, saying that he would not want to box on the Russian team unless Chechnya achieved independence.

In the caption of one photo, showing his muscled upper body, he says that he does not usually take his shirt off in front of women. “I’m very religious,” he says.

Religion poisons everything.

 

[Aught3]

Second one in custody. Only 19.

http://www.3news.co.nz/Second-Boston-bomber-in-custody/tabid/417/articleID/294936/Default.aspx

 

[Metalgod]

Probably more than 3 murders go unreported in the news in the US each day and I personally know of 2 bombings which the media never reported on.

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

 

[Prolescum]

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

:lol:

Most (70-odd percent) Americans are religious.

Is there anything concrete behind your statement, or are you just trying to comfort yourself?

 

[Duvelthehobbit666]

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

Religious, most likely. I think you meant to say, religiously motivated.

 

[Duvelthehobbit666]

Apparently, Russia warned the US about the bombers in 2011. The article is in dutch but I hope most of you will understand it well enough.

 

[IBSpify]

Probably more than 3 murders go unreported in the news in the US each day and I personally know of 2 bombings which the media never reported on.

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

most of the country is made up of people who identify themselves as religious, I would actually go so far to say that a vast majority of murders and bombings are done by religious people simply based upon the general population of this country.

Now if you meant to say that most murders and bombings are not religiously motivated, I will agree with you because people tend to has a variety of reasons to justify their actions so religion gets drowned out by others.

However i will say that a vast majority of abortion clinic bombing and murders of abortion providers are not only done by religious people, but are also religiously motivated.

 

[Metalgod]

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

:lol:

Most (70-odd percent) Americans are religious.

Is there anything concrete behind your statement, or are you just trying to comfort yourself?

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

Religious, most likely. I think you meant to say, religiously motivated.

Actually Duvel, that is what I meant to say. But Im also pretty ok with my original statement. I dont why Prolescum would assume that just because 70% of Americans might be religious, then the majority of murders in America must have been commited by religious people.

Im trying to think of how Prolescum or anyone he has ever read could possibly have better information then I do on this considering the fact I walked the main lines while I was behind bars and I got to live with 100 different murderers. I later decided to distance myself from a criminal organisation that murders people which i had been a part of since age 13. Until I could leave the country, I had to use what I know about murderers to keep them from wanting to kill me.

And it all comes down to at least a 95% to a dog eat dog, survival of the fittest mentality. I do know one guy who has killed drug dealers and says god told him to. He should be in prison but hes on facebook.

 

[Metalgod]

most of the country is made up of people who identify themselves as religious, I would actually go so far to say that a vast majority of murders and bombings are done by religious people simply based upon the general population of this country..

No. I think you dont understand the amount of gang related crime in the US.

However i will say that a vast majority of abortion clinic bombing and murders of abortion providers are not only done by religious people, but are also religiously motivated.

When you say the vast majority of abortion clinic bombing you imply there has been more than..1?

IBSpify, I have a serious question for you, why do you think that there has not been countless cases in the US of students commiting mass murder or raping female students or setting off explosives in schools where they teach students to respect God?

 

[Aught3]

I don[']t [know] why Prolescum would assume that just because 70% of Americans might be religious, then the majority of murders in America must have been commit[t]ed by religious people

It's a statistical inference. If 70% of the population is religious then around 70% of a subset of that population would be expected to be religious. Therefore, murderers being a subset of the population would be expected to be about 70% religious. That's a majority.

 

[IBSpify]

most of the country is made up of people who identify themselves as religious, I would actually go so far to say that a vast majority of murders and bombings are done by religious people simply based upon the general population of this country..

No. I think you dont understand the amount of gang related crime in the US.

you are aware that gang members can be religious correct? In fact some gangs are vary religious, non religious people typically do not get Christ and Crosses tattooed on them, yet that is fairly common among gang members.

 

[Inferno]

It's a statistical inference. If 70% of the population is religious then around 70% of a subset of that population would be expected to be religious. Therefore, murderers being a subset of the population would be expected to be about 70% religious. That's a majority.

And yet, we know that inference to actually be wrong, it vastly underestimates the amount of religious people in prisons. The amount of atheists in prison has always been on the order of 0.01-0.33%, which would make the religious amount 99.67-99.99%. (Search for "prison", you'll find four studies.)

For the sake of fairness, I have to mention a 2012... err... survey? Here's the problem with this "survey": While the previous four actually counted the number of individuals in prisons, this survey focuses on chaplain's beliefs about prisoners. For example, in previous studies Catholics ranked 1st with 40%, protestants second with 35% and atheists (including non-religious?) among the lowest ones with 0.21%.
Yet the 2012 survey ranked protestants first (50%), Catholics second (14%) and the non-religious... third (10%).
So take that 2012 survey with a pinch of salt.

So let's go with the numbers from the earlier surveys, they look like they're more representative.

I would say most of the murders and bombings in the US are not done by religious people.

That's a bold claim, so let's check it out. The clearance rate in 2004 was 62.6% for murder, which is what we're interested in. (The less serious the crime, the less likely it's to be cleared up. Burglary: 13%, Car theft: 13%, Rape: 42%, etc.)

So out of 100 people in prison, we expect about 99 to be religious, one non-religious. That's the first scenario.
I'll actually be nice and check out the second possibility: 85 are religious and 10 are non-religious. (5% didn't respond)

Accepting the 62.6% clearance rate, we can expect another 60 people to have evaded persecution. (100 people = 62.6%, 160 =~100%)

We further have to assume that every single one of those sixty people are non-religious (a bold assumption if there ever was one) and add them into the mix. We're now left with either 99 vs 61 or 85 vs 70. That hardly constitutes a majority... and that's giving you the absolute best case possible.

So no matter how we look at it, your claim is simply false.

When you say the vast majority of abortion clinic bombing you imply there has been more than..1?

Well, yes, actually. Wikipedia lists six bombings and five arsons, another eight were killed, anthrax-threats (655 cases) have been made... And from what I can tell, most of them are associated with "Army of God". A religious crime if ever there was one.

No. I think you dont understand the amount of gang related crime in the US.

I don't know much about gangs in the U.S., so this is an actual question instead of me setting the record straight. How many of the people in gangs are religious?
Oh wait, actually I can simply check out various sources: The LATimes says "[m]ost gang members are religious", so does Streetgangs ("It is typical for gang members to belong to or be affiliated with organized religion.") and a myriad of other, non-reliable sources.

Would you agree with that assessment?

IBSpify, I have a serious question for you, why do you think that there has not been countless cases in the US of students commiting mass murder or raping female students or setting off explosives in schools where they teach students to respect God?

Although this question is addressed to someone who's not me, I'll take a shot at it.
I, for one, am not suggesting that being religious necessarily makes you do these things. Very often, religious people act contrary to their dogmas and teachings. A mere "respect of God" won't necessarily lead you there.
What will have a stronger impact is reading various religious texts (The Koran, the Bible, etc.) and interpreting them as the one true word. If you actually take them seriously, you should be out there stoning people who work on Saturdays.
However, my claim is that non-religion makes you less likely to commit a crime.

Now you might say "that's the same thing", but it really isn't. Let me explain.
A baseline percentage is always 100. Going up (110, 120, etc.) means something increases, in this case crimes by people, going down (90, 80, etc.) means something decreases, again crimes by people.

Now your question implies a non-religious baseline of 100, and the religious one going up.
My answer suggests the opposite: A religious baseline of 100, and the non-religious going down.

The conclusion is rather simple: Of the crimes that happen, most should be done by religious people, but we should not expect the number of crimes to rise. (Maybe they would even fall...)

In fact, that is exactly what is happening: I already showed above that most crimes are done by religious people and a further quick peak at crime statistics show that all crimes are in decline. (Property crimes form a slight exception: They were on the rise until 1990 and have since declined to nearly comparable levels.)

 

[he_who_is_nobody]

:facepalm:

 

[Aught3]

Aught3 wrote:
It's a statistical inference. If 70% of the population is religious then around 70% of a subset of that population would be expected to be religious. Therefore, murderers being a subset of the population would be expected to be about 70% religious. That's a majority.


And yet, we know that inference to actually be wrong, it vastly underestimates the amount of religious people in prisons. The amount of atheists in prison has always been on the order of 0.01-0.33%, which would make the religious amount 99.67-99.99%. (Search for "prison", you'll find four studies.)

The data showing prisoners are <1% atheist and therefore the vast majority of murders are expected to be religious is congruous with the inference I outlined above. Both point to a majority of murderers being religious.