North Korea launches missiles

[Slyfox]

http://www.france24.com/en/20090405-nkorea-appears-have-launched-rocket-japan

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53058220090405?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Interesting turn of events. Do posters think this may signify something serious, or is this simply more grandstanding by the North Korean government? What do ye think is the appropriate response?

 

[blackmetaljesus]

A triumph for proponents of national sovereignty around the globe!

 

[Aught3]

It doesn't seem all that serious, Japan is there to shoot down anything dangerous.
Just more blustering by a rogue state.

 

[DireStraitsFTW]

http://www.france24.com/en/20090405-nkorea-appears-have-launched-rocket-japan

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53058220090405?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Interesting turn of events. Do posters think this may signify something serious, or is this simply more grandstanding by the North Korean government? What do ye think is the appropriate response?

I think it says something slightly alarming that they are trying to do such a thing.

I remember reading something about a missile defense system Bush tried to make, but it was shot down in congress (Not fact, something I recall that may or may not be fully accurate) that I would like to have in place.

 

[Slyfox]

I dont think there is a huge threat against American territorial integrity yet, but if they strike Japan it will force not only their hand, but Chinas' too...

It will be interesting to see what side they will take here.

 

[AntiSkill42]

The north korean propaganda claims they launched their first satellite.

Which is bullshit.

All they got is 2 staged medium ranged missile. And the problem isn't they have the missile for themselves. The problem is that now they now more about missile technology. Quite important since missiles is one of north koreas few profitable exports.

North Korea is a country with an insane dictator. But if they're not cornered they will simply try to keep north korea as it is. In their control, locked away from the rest of the world.

So the threat of a missile attack (a missile that as far as we know is neither precise, nor can it carry a nuclear warhead) is baseless. And my guess is that the conservative-paranoia media like "fox news" in US, "bild" in Germany, "daily star" in Britain [...] are the most dangerous factor here.

Because they'll panic and with them far too many ppl... Then politians will take an aggressive stance. Not to solve the problem but appeal to voters back home. To do that they'll corner north korea.

And than we might have a problem.

China will back up north korea as long as it is possible to use Kim-Jong-Ils regime to keep their northern border and the ppl there under control.
But if kim really goes Apeshit they wont back him up. They'll try to keep the regime with a new leader.
The last thing china and russia want are US troops in Pyongyang. Who would blame them?

About the missile protection system: As far as I heard none of the test so far was really successful. Especially not when the conditions were just a little off. As much as the idea is appealing, as long as its that costly in both money and international relations its not worth it. That doesn't mean the NATO (the North American Tactical Organisation as far as I'm concerned) shouldn't do the research to develop one. But is has to be done with an international consent. And as much as people hate it Russias and chinas positions have to be respected.


North/South Korea at night

 

[Spase]

I wouldn't worry...

They essentially failed at rocket science. For the second time.

The missile defense issue is interesting I think. There used to be a lot more reason not to do with the cold war still far too close in many people's minds. The problem with missile defense is that if you have an enemy equipped with nukes that's developing such a system your only chance if your program is lagging behind theirs is to nuke them while your missiles will still get through.

Now I don't think Russia is likely to react that way... but it's a valid position for other countries to not want to find themselves at the mercy of the only nation with the capability to widely deliver nuclear weapons without fear of retaliation. It was the mutually assured destruction that kept a WWIII from breaking out by many people's guess.... it's why wars were fought over stupid things like Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan... because if there had been real war both sides knew that missiles would start flying. It's just game theory.

I know I wouldn't want to see Russia with anti-missile systems while the rest of the world didn't have them. I can't imagine places like Georgia would last long at all, or that they would have only shut off the gas to Europe to punish Ukraine when they could have made real threats.

North Korea is not a threat to the US... at least not by means of ballistic missiles..

 

[Xulld]

I wouldn't worry...

They essentially failed at rocket science. For the second time.

The missile defense issue is interesting I think. There used to be a lot more reason not to do with the cold war still far too close in many people's minds. The problem with missile defense is that if you have an enemy equipped with nukes that's developing such a system your only chance if your program is lagging behind theirs is to nuke them while your missiles will still get through.

Now I don't think Russia is likely to react that way... but it's a valid position for other countries to not want to find themselves at the mercy of the only nation with the capability to widely deliver nuclear weapons without fear of retaliation. It was the mutually assured destruction that kept a WWIII from breaking out by many people's guess.... it's why wars were fought over stupid things like Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan... because if there had been real war both sides knew that missiles would start flying. It's just game theory.

I know I wouldn't want to see Russia with anti-missile systems while the rest of the world didn't have them. I can't imagine places like Georgia would last long at all, or that they would have only shut off the gas to Europe to punish Ukraine when they could have made real threats.

North Korea is not a threat to the US... at least not by means of ballistic missiles..

Well said between yourself and AntiSkill42 you have highlighted a lot. Great insight!

I would only add that I do not think we should dismiss this launch as possible information gained.
Its possible they are learning, all weapons systems require testing to continue development and finally achieve success.

It really is too bad its not in China's direct interest to take care of its own neighborhood.

Politics never my strong suite, but intriguing none the less.

 

[ImprobableJoe]

From what I understand, Korea has the incredible ability to invest huge capital in missiles that dunk themselves directly offshore. I have to admit, I'm not very scared.

 

[Xulld]

And then manage to find buyers for them.

 

[Rhysz]

I wouldn't be too worried, but If I were South-Korean I'd be very, very concerned. North-Korea might very well have the most mentally unstable government in the world. Closely followed by Iran? And NK getting good missiles is only a question of time since they are reported to be working together with Pakistan.......(Who have developped reasonably dependable delivery systems.

Regards,
Rhysz

 

[COMMUNIST FLISK]

i say everyone is allowed good working missiles....
or no one is....
no more western world thinking its above everyone else and such....
americas agressive attempt at what it calls getting rid of communism (which it isn't, its getting rid of "bad" dictatorships) is alienating the rest of the world......
stop playing big bad bully and other countries might want to calm down a bit lols...
same with the missil defense system in easter europe, im on russias side here, its totally rude of america to do so, they are meant to be allies but the way america is carrying on it seems they plan to keep thier missiles and dissallow everyone else to have/use thiers.....
as if they can REALLY be trusted with them -_-

 

[AntiSkill42]

I blame the bush administration for a lot of the tensions between russia and us, especially regarding the missile defence system. Yet the russians are not angels at all, too....

As much as I appreciate you "knowledge to everybody" doctrin COMMUNISTFLISK, I disagree with this on missile technology.

North Korea should find new ways to finance itself, but at the moment I think they are trying to find out how far they can go with the new administration(They just reactivated their nuclear weapons program...). I'm really interested what obama's going to try to do about this... or how he'll deal with the russians.

As far as south korea is concerned. They've lived with the danger for quite a while now.
It is said that north korea has the 5th greatest military capacity at the moment. And that they have enough standart artillery aimed at Seoul to more or less eliminate the city. Since its more than 50 kilometres distance between the border and seoul I can't say if thats plausible, yet with only 50 kilometres inbetween they might be able hold the city hostage anyway...
(if they want to)

As long as its profitable for the north koreans to sell their rockets they wont stop.

China wants above all a quiet, stable neighbour. And they will ironically endure quite a bit of stress to keep the harmony they have...

I think it really boils down to the problem: can we creat a better situation for the north koreans people? At the moment their occupied with mere surviving...
to feed and educating them is the challange...

not just with north korea though. that one goes for the whole F****** world.

 

[Nemesis]

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/16/nkorea.nuclear.inspectors.out/index.html

Its good to see they are getting along.

UPDATE: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/18/nkorea.threat/index.html
~North Korea said Saturday any sanctions or pressure applied against it following its rocket launch earlier this month will be considered a "declaration of war."~

Cute.

 

[kafka_off_the_beach]

Well, the thing is that the DPRK has issues with a three stage ballistic missile. This is the second "failure" since 2006, but they were able to get it off the launch pad...farther than most nations. I'm sure that 'Lil Kim's generals would not be willing to load a nuclear payload or chemical/biological agent either realizing the reaction from the West. If that were the case they would lose their huge estates and busloads of school age girls transported to their summer villas for parties that would make even Biggie and Pac blush with shame.

As for South Korea, the huge concern is with the intermediate range weapons (aka SCUD missiles) that the North Koreans can launch. The big beef for the Japanese is not just the DPRK missile shoots, but the Chinese BM shots--case in point the BM that splashed off the coast of the southern-most Ryukuan (say that ten times fast) in the 1990s. Of course one can argue that Okinawa and the Ryukuan chain are closer to the Chinese sphere of influence than that of Japan (if it wasn't for the Satsuma men taking the "lord of the southern islands" title conferred upon them in the late 15th century). As for the TD-2, there are ways of tracking it and shooting it down, but if anything, the DPRK is only looking to make political noise--as in trying to remind the world that they have a huge army and are still something to keep an eye on.

Needless the say, the Chinese will only back the DPRK state only based on having a friendly government on their border. It was a personal paranoia of Chairman Mao, and one of the reasons the PLA started pouring across the Chinese/North Korean border before MacAurthur's strutting ego decided to push past the Yalu River. The Chinese fear of having a non-friendly government hearkens back to Japanese expansion in the early 1930s that lead to the invasion of Manchuria and later China.

As for the DPRK doing something silly to start a war to reunify the peninsula or doing something that would compel the Chinese to remove the leadership in the DPRK by force, I don't think that the Chinese will allow the situation to devolve to that point--and it appears that the DPRK is pretty good at this gamesmanship of threatening the world then looking for conciliation. But of course I'm sure they have the lesson of Saddam who played chicken one time too many with Bush...not to legitimize those actions, just saying that Saddam miscalculated the seriousness of Dubya to actually invade Iraq having only dealt with missile strikes and bombings from previous administrations.

There are other interesting BM tactics also, some of them Chinese dealing with how they would counter American sea power. That's about all I think I can say about that. This is the general unclassified version: http://www.military.com/news/article/April-2009/new-concerns-over-chinese-carrier-killer.html

Personally, I think all nuclear arsenals should be disposed of so ABMD is not required. Mutual deterrence is another word for a stand off that can end very badly. We haven't nuked each other into extinction, but there's always a chance of it.

 

[rulezdaworld0]

If NK launch nukes, China & Japan will do something, and probably SK too. Then you've got the Americans, so Russia will join in... There's too much danger in launching themselves. In my opinion if NK ever perfect nuclear missile tech., then they will sell them. If they can do this to terrorists, then America etc may be too preoccupied, thus making NK climb the ladder of power even further.

 

[Abi]

thus making NK climb the ladder of power even further.

Besides over its own people, what power does NK really have? I mean the only reason anyone pays attention to it is because their government is off their rocker and would blow themselves up if it meant getting revenge on everyone else.

 

[Salv]

Isn't the US thinking about putting DPRK back on to the list of "terror"?
I'm quite frightened of the idea of Kim going down with a fight. All this talk of offensive nuking is really pissing everyone off. I'm somewhat ignorant on the subject btw.

 

[Sando]

North Korea in itself isn't a big threat to the world... it's the possible allies they could get. Just imagine if Russia, India, China, Iran, Pakistan etc would side with them? It's quite possible, since all those countries are in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. SCO isn't a military organisation in the full meaning of the word, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's evolved into one.

That would be one hell of a conflict.