• Welcome to League Of Reason Forums! Please read the rules before posting.
    If you are willing and able please consider making a donation to help with site overheads.
    Donations can be made via here

Derren Brown perpetuating junk / pseudo-science

stuart

New Member
arg-fallbackName="stuart"/>
Did anyone see Derrens Brown explanation of how he 'predicted' the lottery ?

It was quite disappionting, I wasn't expecting a masked magician style reveal but to spend an hour talking about things such as automatic writing, wisdom of crowds, collective pyschic abilities, 'deep math' (whatever this is supposed to mean) doesn't help the cause of trying to encourage critical thinking and to educate the public in the matters of the paranormal and pseudo-science. Especially when it comes from someone like Derren Brown, who, in the past, has rightly been sceptical about paranormal claims and has shown debunked the sort of crap he nows seems to be pedalling. People are buying it though, some people now geniunely believe through various methods that Derren used you can predict a lottery draw. Even though a minimal amount of maths background would allow you to see it as complete nonsense.

It really puts me off him, I know almost by definition magicians are dishonest. I think though Derren takes it that one step too far. Obviously his pyschology schtick is his bread and butter and he needs to keep people believing in it to get bums on seats in theatres, but it's a fine line between being dishonest and conning people to get them to buy tickets by making them think they are going to see something they clearly aren't.

Example, Derren used to do a trick at the start of one his stage shows and then proclaim that is the last trick you will see. He says everything else pyschology, suggestion and reading people. He then goes on to do a whole show of traditional magic tricks wrapped up in mentalism. No pyschology, suggestion etc required, his fans lap it up. In my opionion this goes beyond tricking people and into the realms of conning people. How many of the people who watched the show, if told afterwards that what they saw was a traditional magic show, would feel cheated ? I don't know but I'd guess a fair percentage of them would.

So, do magicians like Derren Brown who has so much fans, fans who will believe anything he says have any social responsibility to not further pseudo-science and borderline paranormal nonsense and encourage critical thinking ?

I would never pay to see Derren Brown live when he is getting people into theatres under such false pretenses. I would rather see Penn & Teller, they are honest about being magicians, nothing more and nothing less. I would feel patronized at a Derren Brown show.

Or do you just say that if someone believes that someone else can predict a lottery, then they deserve to be fooled ?
 
arg-fallbackName="Nashy19"/>
You watched it and so did I, I think that's the main thing.

I've got the impression that you can't help a naive person by teaching them what's behind a few specifics but until they "wake up" fundamentally you can fool them for a variety of person gains.

Edit: I just realized all of the malicous things that can be done, I don't think Derren Brown would let people believe in something that can clearly be harmful.
 
arg-fallbackName="Aught3"/>
Hmmm, tricky question. You have to remember that Derren Brown is a magician and his job is to misdirect the audience. I saw the show when he predicted the lottery numbers, which looked rather impressive, but I didn't watch the show were he 'revealed' the secret. The reason was magicians don't reveal their secrets, so I knew it would be a show filled with lame BS. Derren Brown will deny that he has any physic powers, which I think is a good thing, but at the same time he will claim he is reading body language (or something else far-fetched) perhaps undoing some of his good work.

I think it's up the individual viewer what they like to watch, and how they like to be tricked. I personally quite enjoy Derren Brown's magic but I always keep in mind that however he claims to be doing the trick, that is not how he is doing the trick. I also like Penn and Teller's way of doing magic. On the other hand I find Criss Angel really annoying. This is mostly because of his use of fake crowds. If you're going to go onto the street and do magic in front of people, at least make it so they aren't all in on it.

 
arg-fallbackName="xchillx42"/>
But then again, he predicted the lottery results. You saw it, it works, there has to be some sort of psychological basis behind it.
 
arg-fallbackName="Wainscotting"/>
While he used techniques that mystics often applied, he never once said that it was anything paranormal. He explained that the automatic writing was a tool to remove conscious bias and the wisdom of crowds is a documented phenomenon.

What's he's done is demonstrate that there is a way to predict the seemingly unpredictable, but what the actual 'formula' is still eludes us because it's rooted in what he called 'deep maths,' meaning maths that the human brain is as yet incapable of understanding, like the coin toss trick.

Of course, like a showman (with an executive producer keen for ratings) he dressed it up a lot. He did not, however, promote pseudoscience.
 
arg-fallbackName="Netheralian"/>
I finally got to see the show today. I think the whole thing was just one big misdirection to fool the gullible. There were good reasons why he didn't show the numbers until after they were shown by the real lotto people. He also explained that he wouldn't show what the numbers were for his control group until after they were given by lotto to eliminate the "emotion" from their guessing. Sounds like a good excuse for misdirection to me.
Wainscotting said:
While he used techniques that mystics often applied, he never once said that it was anything paranormal. He explained that the automatic writing was a tool to remove conscious bias and the wisdom of crowds is a documented phenomenon.

And if you believe that you will believe almost anything. Just think - what would be the effect of adding one more person to the group of 24 he used to calculate the numbers? The averages he calculated would also then be different and so it wouldn't work. I can understand the "wisdom of crowds" thing working in some cases as it is just statistical sampling - but you can't possibly believe that it works for random numbers.
Wainscotting said:
What's he's done is demonstrate that there is a way to predict the seemingly unpredictable, but what the actual 'formula' is still eludes us because it's rooted in what he called 'deep maths,' meaning maths that the human brain is as yet incapable of understanding, like the coin toss trick.

Actually, what he has done is got (probably) great ratings for his new show by making everyone think he has done something that is ultimately impossible by giving a seemingly plausible (I say that in the loosest possible way) explanation to distract you from the "trick"

Anyway - in response to the OP: From Derren's book Tricks of the Mind "I am an entertainer first and foremost" However, I do to some degree agree that he was promoting pseudo-science.
 
arg-fallbackName="LeMeerkat"/>
Hrmm, what about the alternative he offered, where he stated that he definately did not fix the machine by using the weighted balls? He told the crowd that they can choose which explaination they liked best.
 
arg-fallbackName="Aught3"/>
Netheralian said:
I finally got to see the show today. I think the whole thing was just one big misdirection to fool the gullible. There were good reasons why he didn't show the numbers until after they were shown by the real lotto people.
Yeah, this is the main point for anyone wanting to work out how Derren Brown did it. Showing his predicted numbers before the draw would have been much more impressive. If you think about it, he never actually made a prediction at all.
 
arg-fallbackName="mrgodbehere"/>
Just to defend Derren here. He has done so much to expose pseudosience and groundless and circular beliefs (in fact I think that is one of the main motivators for everything he does) and I think if you forget that, you may have missed the point. It's a challenge to our circular beliefs. All of our circular beleifs.

The point is, he is asking you which is more likely, a story with no empirical basis in which you are asked to believe just because he has told you it is so, or a simple, logical explanation as to how it did it that doesn't rely on the supernatural. In essence he is following his theme of challenging all circukar beleifs by asking us ALL to challenge our circular beleifs. Those who would like the supernatural option are asked to consider the natural option and visa versa.

He is also, I think, asking us to think for ourselves because it was almost certainly done a 3rd way which we don't know but can only speculate about, playing onthe old scientific comfort and beleivers discomfort with the pharse 'I don't know'.

Above all, he is a member of the Magic Circle and so, by the rules of the magic circle, cannot give away his tricks!

One other thing though. He said he planted a stooge. Has anyone got a clue who the guy pressing the button was. Usually its a celebrity but noone I know has heard of him!
 
arg-fallbackName="australopithecus"/>
I've seen Derren live and as he says, he is an entertainer and he is exactly that. He's done a lot to undermine and debunk various 'paranormal' and psuedoscientific nonsense over the years but again, he is at the end of the day an entertainer and that's what he's going to.

The chances of him fixing the national lottery are remote at best which means that what he did with the group has some grounding in reality. To what degree it was psycology or luck is up for debate but I've always found him to be very honest about what he does, and I've never seen him state anything he does as anything other than a trick.
 
arg-fallbackName="Aught3"/>
Is anyone seriously suggesting that Derren Brown actually predicted the lottery numbers?
 
arg-fallbackName="Netheralian"/>
Aught3 said:
Is anyone seriously suggesting that Derren Brown actually predicted the lottery numbers?

I'm hoping not. I would question why they are on this discussion group if that was the case.

Mostly I really like his work. It's very entertaining and his explainations are generally plausible to some degree (even if it isn't enough info to replicate it yourself). However this show was a bit of a let down because it offered nothing as an explanation. The only comment of his I believed through the whole show was his last sentence - he said something like "It's just a trick."

I've seen some good replications of what he did using camera tricks that seem much more plausible.

Here for example

mrgodbehere said:
One other thing though. He said he planted a stooge.

I missed that - if that is the case, i would suggest it was the guy he pulled out of the 24 because he couldn't do the number writing thingo. He was in charge of averaging the numbers. I also think the 24 of them were being fooled as well after he refuse to calculate the answers until after the lotto had been drawn on the previous occasions.
 
arg-fallbackName="LeMeerkat"/>
Netheralian said:
I missed that - if that is the case, i would suggest it was the guy he pulled out of the 24 because he couldn't do the number writing thingo. He was in charge of averaging the numbers. I also think the 24 of them were being fooled as well after he refuse to calculate the answers until after the lotto had been drawn on the previous occasions.

At the end of the show he told the audience that there was a third option, and in a humourous manner stated (roughly):
Ofcourse, there is another option which would be illegal. It's certain to say that I really didn't have an inside man on the BBC (picture of a person with blurred out face holding the winning lottery balls appears on the screen), I didn't have these weighted balls made (holds out weighted balls with the lottery numbers on them), and we really didn't find a date when the balls weren't going to be checked (a picture of a calendar with a date circled appears)
 
arg-fallbackName="Netheralian"/>
LeMeerkat said:
[Ofcourse, there is another option which would be illegal. It's certain to say that I really didn't have an inside man on the BBC (picture of a person with blurred out face holding the winning lottery balls appears on the screen), I didn't have these weighted balls made (holds out weighted balls with the lottery numbers on them), and we really didn't find a date when the balls weren't going to be checked (a picture of a calendar with a date circled appears)

Oh - that bit... That's obviously bollocks...
 
arg-fallbackName="australopithecus"/>
Aught3 said:
Is anyone seriously suggesting that Derren Brown actually predicted the lottery numbers?

I wouldn't have thought so. Either he was supremely lucky or he pulled off one giant piece of misdirection. Or he fixed the lottery.
 
arg-fallbackName="lonelocust"/>
australopithecus said:
Aught3 said:
Is anyone seriously suggesting that Derren Brown actually predicted the lottery numbers?

I wouldn't have thought so. Either he was supremely lucky or he pulled off one giant piece of misdirection. Or he fixed the lottery.

I thought it was pretty clear that it was a misdirection, and it was not intended to be taken as anything other than an example of why misdirection works. Clearly however, people in this thread took it that he actually predicted the numbers.

Oh, but the "wisdom of crowds" thing is in fact a documented phenomenon. Off to find sources, I suppose...
 
arg-fallbackName="Netheralian"/>
lonelocust said:
Oh, but the "wisdom of crowds" thing is in fact a documented phenomenon. Off to find sources, I suppose...

Yes - its called statistical sampling...
 
arg-fallbackName="stuart"/>
Did anyone see tonight's effort ?

I didn't see it.

But from what I hear on msn from a friend, he made people who watched it get stuck to their seat by showing them a subliminal video so they wouldn't be able to stand up, they would be stuck to their sofa.

Apparently though he said it doesn't work on youtube, only on your TV because the subliminal messages require a certain resolution or some such rubbish.

Really,

And people will buy this, just like they bought the lottery stuff.

--sigh--
 
Back
Top