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Concerns on Casey's Calculations

Call Me Emo

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Written by: Emotionally Stunted Emoticon

In an article from Evolutionnews.org [2], Casey Luskin of the Discovery Institute attempted to critique a 2010 paper on the evolution of Antifreeze in Antarctic Eelpouts [1]. Although numerous claims were made throughout the article, I'll be focusing on Casey's calculations on gene duplication rates, since that seems to be the most significant argument he's making.

Casey goes on to calculate the time it should have taken for the Antarctic Eelpout to evolve 30 copies of the AFPIII gene in the following quote.

Quote:
Screenshot_20200421-153606.png


Basically he's arguing that because genes duplicate at a rate of 0.01 per gene per million years, then it should take about 3 Billion years to get 30 copies of a gene.

And here's where my concerns with Casey's calculations begin. Casey failed to take into account that organisms can have thousands of genes, so even at a rate of 0.01 duplications per gene per million years can result in hundreds of duplicates in just a few million years.

Quote:
Screenshot_20200421-153706.png


In addition to Casey's failures to properly calculate the rates of gene duplication... He also fails to take into account that not all genes evolve at the same rate. the rate of "0.01 duplicates per gene per million years" is only an average gene duplication rate for an entire genome.

To illustrate by way of example how flawed Casey's calculations are, here we have a paper describing how Dogs Evolved up to 28 copies of an amylase gene (AMY2B) in the last 15,000 years...a far far cry from the Billions of years Casey thinks is necessary to produce them.

Quote:
Screenshot_20200421-153733.png


In conclusion we see that Casey had to both misrepresent the actual rates of gene duplication, and completely ignored observed duplication rates in order to make his "arguments" against the evolution of antifreeze in Antarctic Eelpouts. But what concerns me most about Casey's article is that ABSOLUTELY NO ONE at the Discovery Institute was able to point out the flaws within it. This just goes to highlight the lack of academic rigour being practiced at the Discovery Institute.



REFERENCES:

1) Evolution of an antifreeze protein by neofunctionalization under escape from adaptive conflict; Cheng Deng et al, 2010:

2) A Fishy Story About AntiFreeze Gene Evolution; Casey Luskin, 2011:

3) The genomic signature of dog domestication reveals adaptation to a starch-rich diet; Erik Axelsson et al, 2013. [PDF]:

4) Paper: Gene Duplication and Protein Evolution in Tick-Host Interactions; Ben. J. Mans et al, 2017:
 
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